Tier 5
24. Melvin Frazier
25. Donte DiVincenzo
26. Lonnie Walker
27. Kevin Knox
28. Landry Shamet
29. Shake Milton
30. Mitchell Robinson
31. Brandon McCoy
32. Keita Bates-Diop
Best of the rest:
Bruce Brown, Trevon Duval, Jarred Vanderbilt, Justin Jackson, Chandler Hutchison, Omari Spellman, Khyri Thomas, Isaac Bonga, Malik Newman, Jalen Brunson, Rawle Alkins, Gary Clark, Kevin Hervey, Kenrich Williams, Bonzie Colson, Jevon Carter
24. Melvin Frazier
Risk: 9 /10
Potenial: 8.5 /10
The first 3 prospects of this tier were all stand outs of the NBA Combine. Despite being the oldest at 21.8, I like Frazier the most because he has the most reliable defense, and the best size (a gigantic 7’2 wingspan), which will allow for positional flexibility.
25. Donte DiVincenzo
Risk: 9 /10
Potenial: 8.5 /10
Donte DiVincenzo has better dribbling skills and a deadly pull up jumper, which Frazier is lacking.
26. Lonnie Walker
Risk: 9 /10
Potenial: 8.5 /10
Walker also has better footwork than Frazier, which allows him to quickly get into his shot coming off screens. Walker, however, is the least versatile of the 3.
Let’s first compare their NBA Combine statistics:
| Player | Standing Vert. | No Step Jump | Max Vert. | Maximum Jump | Lane Agility | Shuttle Run | 3/4 Court Sprint |
| (secs) | (secs) | (secs) | |||||
| Melvin Frazier | 31 | 11’4″ | 40.5 | 12’1.5″ | 11.24 | 3.08 | 3.08 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 34.5 | 11’0″ | 42 | 11’7.5″ | 10.72 | 3.12 | 3.11 |
| Lonnie Walker | 31.5 | 10’11” | 40 | 11’7.5″ | 10.87 | 2.91 | 3.06 |
All three players have a 40″ plus max vert, which is extremely impressive. They also finished with some of the highest agility / running times. All of them should have the raw physical tools to grow into an NBA role.
| Player | Height w/o Shoes | Height w/ Shoes | Weight | Wingspan | Standing Reach | Body Fat % | Hand Length | Hand Width |
| Melvin Frazier | 6′ 4.5” | 6′ 6” | 198.2 | 7′ 1.75” | 8′ 9” | 7.90% | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 6′ 3.5” | 6′ 4.5” | 200 | 6′ 6.5” | 8′ 1.5” | 5.00% | 8.25 | 9 |
| Lonnie Walker | 6′ 3.75” | 6′ 4.5” | 196.2 | 6′ 10.25” | 8′ 3.5” | 5.65% | 9 | 9.5 |
Although they have similar heights, Frazier has an enormous advantage in wingspan and standing reach.
Offense:
| Age | USG | TS% | FG% at rim | %assisted at rim | FG% 2pt Jumpers | ||
| 21.8 | Melvin Frazier | Jr | 22.2 | 0.63 | 70.7% | 46.1% | 32.0% |
| 21.4 | Donte DiVincenzo | So | 22.4 | 0.61 | 65.1% | 43.7% | 45.7% |
| 19.5 | Lonnie Walker | Fr | 22.4 | 0.53 | 58.9% | 41.1% | 32.8% |
| Otto Porter | So | 24.2 | 0.59 | 74.7% | 60.7% | 51.8% |
Frazier – finisher at the rim: A better inside finisher, Frazier used his length to score 1.244 points per shot around the rim in the half court, 72nd percentile, per Synergy.
Divincenzo – pull up shooter: Divincenzo’s shooting was just as deadly inside the arc, as beyond it. He scored 1.060 points per dribble jump shot, 90th percentile per Synergy. This includes 18% of his 2pt jumpers, of which only 16% were assisted. He should have no trouble hurting close outs
Walker – inefficient: Walker was relatively inefficient, with only a 53% true shooting mark. He has a lower score in FG% at the rim and on 2pt jumpers.
| 3PTA | 3FG% | %assisted 3s | FTA/FGA | FT% | AST% | ORtg | ||
| Melvin Frazier | Jr | 91 | 38.5% | 102.9% | 36.6% | 0.71 | 0.18 | 114.3 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | So | 212 | 40.1% | 76.5% | 27.4% | 0.71 | 0.20 | 121.5 |
| Lonnie Walker | Fr | 162 | 34.6% | 69.6% | 20.4% | 0.74 | 0.13 | 109.3 |
| Otto Porter | So | 53 | 22.6% | 58.3% | 35.3% | 0.70 | 0.19 | 122.3 |
Frazier – improving shooter: Frazier’s 3pt shot jumped to 39% this year, on a reasonable 91 attempts. However, he was sub 30% in his first 2 years, and his 71% at the FT line is a signal that his shot probably needs more improvement.
DiVincenzo – dribble shooter: DiVincenzo is a deadly shooter off the dribble. However, his catch and shoot and free throw numbers are less impressive. Per Synergy, he hit 1.091 points per catch and shoot jump shot, 63rd percentile.
Walker – improving shooter: Walker’s 3pt percentage was the lowest at 35%, but it is arguably as good as Fraziers, since about 30% of his 3s were unassisted. Furthermore, his 74% from the FT line is comparable to Frazier and DiVincenzo.
Frazier and Divincenzo – secondary handlers: Both Frazier and DiVincenzo show more potential than Walker as secondary ball handlers, with much higher Assist rates. This is key for DiVincenzo, as he may be asked to play backup PG.
| ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | STL% | BLK% | DRtg | ||
| Melvin Frazier | Jr | 3.9 | 14.6 | 9.3 | 3.5% | 2.2% | 100.7 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | So | 4.9 | 13.8 | 9.6 | 2.1% | 0.7% | 100.4 |
| Lonnie Walker | Fr | 1.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 101.8 |
| Otto Porter | So | 6.6 | 18.9 | 13.2 | 3.3% | 3.0% | 84.0 |
Frazier – Lockdown defense: Frazier stands out with his disruptive steal rate, and impressive block rate. He is a great defender, able to use his quick feet and long arms to stay in front of his man. He has a solid rebound rate for an SF.
DiVincenzo – hardworking defense: Although lacking in length, DiVincenzo is quick and works hard on defense. He may not be an elite defender, but he should be able to stay with his man. His rebound rate is great for his size.
Lonnie Walker – inconsistent defender: Although he has the quickness, his defensive awareness is lacking.
Overall, Frazier’s lockdown defense and solid rebounding gives him a starting point in the NBA. Much of his offense came from spot up and screen situations, which should translate well the NBA. This is a good basis for play a 3&D role, with upside for playmaking. DiVincenzo has a reliable shot, and can create deadly pull ups for himself off the dribble. He has more of a bench scorer outlook, but with his athleticism more might be possible. Walker has the athletic tools, and specifically pull up dribble potential, however, I am less optimistic than most people about his ability to improve his efficiency, as I think his awareness is lacking on both ends of the court, which can sometimes be permanent.
27. Kevin Knox
Risk: 9 /10
Potenial: 8.5 /10
Kevin Knox has shown some flashes of talent. I think he legitimately has a Tobias Harris upside. However, he was very disappointing in his freshman season. His numbers are terrible.
There is good news. At, 18.9 he is one of the youngest prospects. While his steal and block rates are poor, his shooting numbers are mediocre, as opposed to bad. At 6’9″, with a near 7 foot wingspan, Knox has the size for PF.
Offense:
| USG | TS% | FG% at rim | %assisted at rim | FG% 2pt Jumpers | ||
| Kevin Knox | Fr | 24.7 | 0.56 | 67.4% | 53.1% | 42.1% |
| Paul George | So | 27.9 | 0.57 | |||
| Tobias Harris | Fr | 27.3 | 0.54 |
Scorer: Overall, Knox was fairly efficient, his 56% TS comparing well with Paul George and Tobias Harris, but on a slightly lower usage. His finishing around the rim and on midrange shots was quite good.
| 3PTA | 3FG% | %assisted 3s | FTA/FGA | FT% | AST% | ORtg | ||
| Kevin Knox | Fr | 167 | 34.1% | 91.2% | 37.3% | 0.77 | 0.09 | 109.7 |
| Paul George | So | 0.91 | 0.23 | 108.0 | ||||
| Tobias Harris | Fr | 0.75 | 0.10 | 112.4 |
Average shooting: Knox only shot 34% from 3, but he shot fairly well from the FT line at 77%. He has plenty of time to improve over time. This will be crucial.
| ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | STL% | BLK% | DRtg | ||
| Kevin Knox | Fr | 3.3 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 101.8 |
| Paul George | So | 6.7 | 19.0 | 12.8 | 4.2% | 3.0% | 93.7 |
| Tobias Harris | Fr | 7.6 | 20.7 | 14.0 | 1.4% | 3.4% | 98.3 |
Questionable defender: Knox does not excel as a rebounder, but again, his 14.5% defensive rebound rate is in mediocre territory as opposed to bad. The real red flag is Knox’s lack of steals and blocks. There is potential for Knox to be a decent positional defender. Per Synergy, he allowed only 0.621 points per Isolation possession, 76th percentile.
Knox’s numbers are quite mediocre overall, but his combination of touch, youth, and length suggest that he could be an effective scorer if he can improve. I think his is more of a project compared to the other young prospects, but there is some reason for hope that he will improve in all aspects of the game. Since he is not an explosive athlete, I think his upside is slightly lower than Frazier, DiVincenzo and Walker.
28. Landry Shamet
Risk: 8 /10
Potenial: 8 /10
29. Shake Milton
Risk: 8 /10
Potenial: 8 /10
Both Shamet and Milton are polished, but slightly older and less athletic prospects. Shamet is a better inside finisher and playmaker. Milton is a better rebounder and defender.
Offense:
| Age | USG | TS% | FG% at rim | %assisted at rim | FG% 2pt Jumpers | ||
| 21.3 | Landry Shamet | So | 20.7 | 0.66 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 37.5% |
| 21.7 | Shake Milton | Jr | 24.9 | 0.61 | 48.3% | 27.6% | 44.7% |
Shamet – inside scorer: Shamet showed a much better ability to score at the rim. He was more efficient, but had a lower usage.
| 3PTA | 3FG% | %assisted 3s | FTA/FGA | FT% | AST% | ORtg | TOV% | ||
| Landry Shamet | So | 190 | 44.2% | 79.8% | 32.7% | 0.83 | 0.29 | 129.9 | 0.16 |
| Shake Milton | Jr | 129 | 43.4% | 80.4% | 40.5% | 0.85 | 0.24 | 123.7 | 0.13 |
Both – sharpshooters: With stellar marks of 43-44% from 3, and 83-85% from FT line, both players should develop as NBA 3pt shooters.
| ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | STL% | BLK% | DRtg | ||
| Landry Shamet | So | 1.6 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 1.3% | 0.7% | 104.2 |
| Shake Milton | Jr | 2.1 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 96.0 |
Both – solid defenders: Milton has good stl and block rates, but he does not have outstanding quickness. He should be a solid defender. Shamet has much lower steal and block rates, but he has a good basketball IQ, and should be able to be an average defender.
30. Mitchell Robinson
Risk: 11 /10
Potential: 9.5 /10
Mitchell is a huge center who has good mobility and shows finesse as well. However, he committed and decomitted twice. He didn’t attend the NBA combine, and has generally kept himself a mystery. He is a late 1st round gamble, but this type of behaviour makes you question his reliability, competitiveness, work ethic, and overall character. As such, there is not much analysis to be done. His upside might be as high as Bamba or Robert Williams, but what is the point if his odds of achieving it and being a stable player are lottery odds?
31. Brandon McCoy
Risk: 9 /10
Potential: 8.5 /10
McCoy is young at 20.0, but as a rebounding center with mediocre defense, his fit in the NBA is questionable.
32. Keita Bates-Diop
Risk: 8.5 /10
Potential: 8/10
Keita Bates-Diop has potential as both a rebounder and stretch shooter, but his is older 22.4, and seems quite slow.
Offense:
| Age | USG | TS% | FG% at rim | %assisted at rim | FG% 2pt Jumpers | ||
| 20.0 | Brandon McCoy | Fr | 27.5 | 0.59 | 67.7% | 67.1% | 36.6% |
| 22.4 | Keita Bates-Diop | Jr | 29.5 | 0.58 | 72.4% | 47.2% | 44.2% |
Both – Capable scorers: Both players used a high percentage of plays on the court, with solid efficiency overall.
| 3PTA | 3FG% | %assisted 3s | FTA/FGA | FT% | AST% | ORtg | TOV% | ||
| Brandon McCoy | Fr | 9 | 33.3% | 100.0% | 50.5% | 0.73 | 0.04 | 112.4 | 0.16 |
| Keita Bates-Diop | Jr | 184 | 35.9% | 87.9% | 27.4% | 0.79 | 0.11 | 116.9 | 0.10 |
Keita – 3pt potential: Keita shot 36% from 3 on 184 attempts, with a 79% FT rate to support his shooting ability. This should translate well to the NBA 3pt line.
McCoy – shooting potential: 73% from the FT line is quite good for a young big. He may be able to develop an outside shot with time.
McCoy – turnover prone: Considering his low 4% assist rate, his 16% turnover rate is absurd. This limited his efficiency dramatically.
| ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | STL% | BLK% | DRtg | ||
| Brandon McCoy | Fr | 12.8 | 25.1 | 19.4 | 0.9% | 5.7% | 98.9 |
| Keita Bates-Diop | Jr | 5.7 | 24.5 | 15.5 | 1.6% | 5.9% | 93.9 |
Both – excellent rebounders: Both players are terrific defensive rebounders. McCoy is also a fantastic Offensive rebounder.
Average shot blockers: Both players are mediocre shot blockers with a 6% block rate.
Overall, McCoy and Bates-Diop could be good players in the NBA, but they have limiting factors. The modern NBA makes them less appealing as first round picks.
Best of the rest:
Bruce Brown, Trevon Duval, Jarred Vanderbilt, Justin Jackson, Chandler Hutchison, Omari Spellman, Khyri Thomas, Isaac Bonga, Malik Newman, Jalen Brunson, Rawle Alkins, Gary Clark, Kevin Hervey, Kenrich Williams, Bonzie Colson, Jevon Carter
Of these players, I like Duval and Vanderbilt as upside picks with nothing to lose in the second round. Justin Jackson has great size and suffered an injury which means his performance may have been depressed. Isaac Bonga is a good draft and stash.
1 Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Marvin Bagley
5. Trae Young
6. Wendell Carter Jr.
7. Zhaire Smith
8. Elie Okobo
9. Michael Porter Jr.
10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Mo Bamba
12. Anfernee Simons
13. Josh Okogie
14. Troy Brown
15. Mikal Bridges
16. Collin Sexton
17. De’Anthony Melton
18. Robert Williams
19. Jacob Evans
20. Miles Bridges
21. Dzanan Musa
22. Gary Trent Jr.
23. Kevin Huerter
24. Melvin Frazier
25. Donte DiVincenzo
26. Lonnie Walker
27. Kevin Knox
28. Landry Shamet
29. Shake Milton
30. Mitchell Robinson
31. Brandon McCoy
32. Keita Bates-Diop
Best of the rest:
Bruce Brown, Trevon Duval, Jarred Vanderbilt, Justin Jackson, Chandler Hutchison, Omari Spellman, Khyri Thomas, Isaac Bonga, Malik Newman, Jalen Brunson, Rawle Alkins, Gary Clark, Kevin Hervey, Kenrich Williams, Bonzie Colson, Jevon Carter
Hoop Strategy 