1 Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton
Tier 1:
This tier, Doncic, Jaren Jackson, and Ayton, are potential franchise players. Doncic is terrific, but I see him as a notch below the can’t miss / generational talent level which was obvious from players like Anthony Davis, Lebron, Durant, Ben Simmons. Although his accomplishments in Europe are unique, that also makes it more difficult to evaluate. No other prospect has done this before.
1. Luka Doncic
Risk: 8 /10
Potential: 10 /10
Doncic has the potential to be James Harden level superstar. He has a lethal combination of shot creation and passing skills. Great defensive rebounder.
There are 2 big questions:
1) Will quicker NBA defenses reduce his ability to penetrate off the dribble?
2) Will he be good enough on defense?
I think the risk of Doncic being too slow is overrated. First, he is quicker than advertised. I will let P3 explain:
“In the lateral plane, Luka’s ability to abduct the hip (1 dev above the mean) allows him to generate Force more efficiently than most NBA players that we’ve assessed (71st percentile in lateral acceleration). He’s become particularly adept in a change-of-direction environment, where his Slide Agility times outpace most NBA Guards tested at P3 and they’ve improved by roughly 0.25s in the past year. Vertically, Luka ranks better than 73% of NBA guards in height touched during the approach and his improved his countermovement jump by 2 inches in the past year” – P3
Basketball is not just about speed. It’s about changing pace, anticipating the defense, timing your moves to throw them off balance. Doncic doesn’t have the speed of John Wall, but neither does James Harden. Brandon Roy was the best scorer in the league without elite quickness.
Will Doncic be good on defense? Defense will likely be a problem for Doncic early in his NBA career. He may never be an elite defender. However, he is young, he has excellent lateral movement (described above), and his stl rate and blk rate suggest some potential. Even if he ends up as a below average defender, this is an acceptable trade-off for an elite scorer. This is a key factor in the decision to pick Doncic over Ayton or JJJ. At the center position, big men need to be excellent defenders in the modern NBA to have value. Not so for Doncic.
More on Doncic:
| USG | TS% | FT% | AST% | ORtg | ||
| Luka Doncic | Intl | 27.2 | 0.59 | 0.79 | 0.32 | 121.1 |
| James Harden | Fr | 28.4 | 0.63 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 120.0 |
| Manu Ginobili | 1 | 18.5 | 0.56 | 0.74 | 0.16 | 106.0 |
| Donovan Mitchell | Fr | 20.9 | 0.53 | 0.75 | 0.16 | 116.1 |
| Brandon Roy | So | 22.1 | 0.55 | 0.79 | 0.20 | 107.7 |
| Paul George | So | 27.9 | 0.57 | 0.91 | 0.23 | 108.0 |
Elite Passing: Without a doubt, Doncic possess elite passing abilities to match his scoring. His 31.30% assist rate is even excellent for a point guard (and superior to other wing playmakers at the same age). Doncic possess incredible vision, and he doesn’t just throw tricky passes for fun. They’re effective.
Elite Scoring: What stands out most when watching Doncic is his incredible scoring instincts. He seems to unleash the right move at exactly the right time. Although is not overpowering with his quickness and athleticism, he is a capable athlete, and will probably have average NBA athleticism. He reads the defense well, stepping or dribbling in a way which breaks the rhythm to his advantage. His vast array of offensive moves is impressive. NBA prospects without elite athleticism are always a risk, but much less so with Doncic because he has shown so many useful skills. He has a well polished floater, runner, and fade away, which should allow him to score against NBA level defense, even if he struggles at the rim initially.
Shooting will improve: Although his 32% from 3pt range leaves much room to improve, we should remember the 10/10 level of difficulty on some of his shots, which he creates by himself through pull ups and step backs. These are rare skills, even in the NBA, and they will be useful even if he slowly improve to say 37% in the next few years. His 80% from the FT line is solid, and comes on 5 FTA in his 25 mpg. His ability to get to the FT line is an important part of his efficient offensive game. Of his comparisons above, only Paul George had a better FT% at the same age.
| ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | STL% | BLK% | DRtg | ||
| Luka Doncic | Intl | 4.9 | 20.8 | 13.2 | 2.5% | 1.6% | 104.9 |
| James Harden | Fr | 5.4 | 14.6 | 10.3 | 4.1% | 2.3% | 95.2 |
| Manu Ginobili | 1 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.6% | 0.8% | 98.9 |
| Donovan Mitchell | Fr | 6.6 | 13.5 | 10.1 | 2.6% | 0.6% | 92.7 |
| Brandon Roy | So | 5.2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 106.6 |
| Paul George | So | 6.7 | 19.0 | 12.8 | 4.2% | 3.0% | 93.7 |
Great rebounding: Against Spain (Gasol brothers) in the Euroleague Semifinal 2017, he had 12 rebounds. His anticipation and timing on the rebounds was impressive, and they were a key part of the victory. Doncic did not look out of place in this game. Far from it, he looked confident and mature. This too reminds me of Donovan Mitchell’s confidence, an important factor in translation to the NBA. Overall, his 21% defensive rebounding percentage is excellent. He may be able to play power forward.
Defense must improve: Doncic is untested against much quicker and stronger players. His 105 defensive rating leaves much to be desired. He can sometimes show great instincts getting into the lane for steals, his 2.45% stl rating is solid. Synergy defensive stats. 1.06PPP allowed, which is 14th percentile. Considering his offensive gifts, if he is able to be an average defender, this may be all that is necessary. His size certainly helps. At 6’8, 8’9.5 standing reach, he should be able to guard small forwards if guards are too quick for him. As mentioned above, his great rebounding means that he may be able to hold his own against forwards.
While Doncic could certainly struggle to adapt to the athleticism of the NBA, we sometimes underestimate intangibles. Doncic is brimming with intangibles.
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Risk 8 /10
Potential 10 /10
Jaren Jackson Jr. could be a more athletic version of Myles Turner. He is extremely efficient on both ends of the floor, at ~90th percentile in Synergy PPP on both ends.
What will prevent him from achieving his potential?
1) Foul rate
2) Offensive awareness
Foul committing: He averaged 5.9 PF per 40 minutes. Obviously, that limited his ability to stay on the court in college. Karl Athony Towns averaged 5.6 PF per 40 in his freshman season. Obviously, Towns has been able to stay on the court. My concern is second order effect. Towns had an 11.2% blk rate in his freshman season. That dropped to 3.5% through his first 3 NBA seasons. Therefore, Jackson may have to reduce his effectiveness as an interior defender in order to stay on the court. DeMarcus Cousins and Larry Sanders are players who had difficulty with fouls in college. All three of Towns, Cousins, and Sanders were able to reduce their foul rate in the NBA. But I think there is some risk that this puts a limit on Jackson’s dominant shot blocking.
Offensive IQ?: I am also bothered by his offensive awareness. Although he is hyperefficient as a 3&D big, it is difficult to be a superstar without adding more dimensions to his offensive arsenal. He will need to add more moves to his game, but I’m not sure he has the feel for game on offense which would allow him to be more than a secondary scorer.
Overall, JJJ’s ability to hit the 3 with a quick release is a huge weapon. He excellent defense, and ability to reasonable switch onto the PNR ball handler improve his chances of fitting in well at the center position.
One of the major factors which gives JJJ a value advantage over Ayton is that he has the shooting skills and perimeter defense to play as stretch 4. That adds some optionality if Jackson’s interior defense does not translate very well to the NBA. He is also a year younger at 18.8 vs Ayton’s 19.9
Offense:
| USG | TS% | FG% at rim | %assisted at rim | FG% 2pt Jumpers | ||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | Fr | 23.5 | 0.65 | 65.4% | 47.1% | 40.6% |
| Myles Turner | Fr | 25.1 | 0.56 | 71.7% | 65.1% | 42.7% |
| Kevin Garnett | 1 | 17.7 | 0.52 | |||
| Noah Vonleh | Fr | 21.4 | 0.60 | 59.3% | 37.5% | 35.4% |
| Joel Embiid | Fr | 23.3 | 0.66 | 76.3% | 67.8% | 36.5% |
| Karl Anthony Towns | Fr | 23.7 | 0.63 | 75.7% | 46.4% | 43.1% |
| Anthony Davis | Fr | 18.9 | 0.65 | 87.4% | 61.2% | 38.5% |
Efficient Scorer: Jackon’s 65% TS is excellent, with a substantial usage as well. Although his FG% at the rim is lower, he was assisted on less of these shots than his comps here.
| 3PTA | 3FG% | %assisted 3s | FTA/FGA | FT% | AST% | ORtg | ||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | Fr | 96 | 39.6% | 97.4% | 57.3% | 0.80 | 0.09 | 120.7 |
| Myles Turner | Fr | 61 | 27.9% | 76.5% | 44.4% | 0.84 | 0.06 | 112.6 |
| Kevin Garnett | 1 | 0.71 | 0.11 | 106.7 | ||||
| Noah Vonleh | Fr | 33 | 48.5% | 93.8% | 62.0% | 0.72 | 0.05 | 113.3 |
| Joel Embiid | Fr | 5 | 20.0% | 100.0% | 83.6% | 0.69 | 0.12 | 116.5 |
| Karl Anthony Towns | Fr | 8 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 0.81 | 0.12 | 126.8 |
| Anthony Davis | Fr | 20 | 15.0% | 100.0% | 60.2% | 0.71 | 0.08 | 138.8 |
Great shooting: We can see that Jackson’s 3pt shot is much further along than his comps. Both Myles Turner and KAT have turned into good 3pt shooters. We also see that he has shot well from the 3pt line. It’s a great sign that he is able to get to the FT line at an elite level. He even gets a reasonable level of assists for his position.
Defense:
| ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | STL% | BLK% | DRtg | ||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | Fr | 8.8 | 19.7 | 14.9 | 1.6% | 14.2% | 85.8 |
| Myles Turner | Fr | 7.2 | 24.9 | 16.8 | 0.8% | 12.3% | 85.3 |
| Kevin Garnett | 1 | 9.2 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 1.9% | 4.4% | 107.4 |
| Noah Vonleh | Fr | 10.8 | 27.3 | 19.4 | 1.9% | 5.5% | 90.7 |
| Joel Embiid | Fr | 12.8 | 26.5 | 20.3 | 2.3% | 11.5% | 89.2 |
| Karl Anthony Towns | Fr | 14.2 | 22.4 | 18.6 | 1.4% | 11.2% | 77.3 |
| Anthony Davis | Fr | 11.3 | 24.2 | 18.2 | 2.5% | 13.8% | 79.3 |
Mediocre rebounding: Where Jackson lags other center prospects is in rebounding. He failed to box out. He will need to improve in this area to be a center at the NBA level. Reducing this risk is his potential to play the 4 position, and also the potential for him to play with wings who are good rebounders. (It is easier to find rebounding wings than shot blocking wings).
Shot blocking: Terrific shot blocking rate. As discussed above, Jackson’s foul rate could limit his shot blocking at the next level. But at least he has great potential in this area. He is much better at shot blocking that the other big men at the top of this draft. He excellent defense shows in his Defensive Rating.
Jackson’s hyperefficiency and versatility add a tremendous amount of value, and simultaneously reduce the risk of a bust.
3. DeAndre Ayton
Risk 8.5/10
Potential 10/10
Ayton projects to be a scorer and rebounder on the Embiid, Towns, Cousins level.
However, I think his probability of being a strong defender is much lower.
His steal and block rates are glaring holes. They are very similar to Jahlil Okafor. There is a serious risk that Ayton will be unable to stay on the court if his defense does not improve.
There is a high supply of centers in the NBA, and interior defense is so valuable that a strong Lob & D center can be more effective than an efficient scorer.
A few mitigating factors:
- Ayton was playing PF for much of the season. He may have more success as an interior defender as a full time Center. This does not make up for his lack of effort and defensive awareness however.
- Ayton was awful as post up defender. Considering the reduction in post ups in the modern NBA, this may hurt him less at the next level
- Although he was awful as a PNR defender, he showed surprising quickness on the perimeter, and ability to close out on spot ups. At least he has the raw tools to improve if he becomes motivated
Overall, the defensive question marks are serious because of the importance of interior defense at the Center position.
Offense:
| USG | TS% | FG% at rim | %assisted at rim | FG% 2pt Jumpers | ||
| DeAndre Ayton | Fr | 26.6 | 0.65 | 82.1% | 57.5% | 42.9% |
| Jahlil Okafor | Fr | 27.5 | 0.64 | 76.5% | 53.8% | 50.0% |
| Andre Drummond | Fr | 20.8 | 0.51 | 67.0% | 64.0% | 26.0% |
| Joel Embiid | Fr | 23.3 | 0.66 | 76.3% | 67.8% | 36.5% |
| Karl Anthony Towns | Fr | 23.7 | 0.63 | 75.7% | 46.4% | 43.1% |
| Anthony Davis | Fr | 18.9 | 0.65 | 87.4% | 61.2% | 38.5% |
| Steven Adams | Fr | 17.6 | 0.56 | 68.0% | 65.0% | 33.0% |
| DeMarcus Cousins | Fr | 30.5 | 0.58 |
Dominant scorer: Ayton was a tremendous post scorer in college. 82% at the rim is incredible. He showed a diverse range of post moves. He also had a high usage rate, increasing the chance that this will translate to the NBA. His 65% TS and 130 O-rating are about as high as you could expect from a dominant post scorer.
| 3PTA | 3FG% | %assisted 3s | FTA/FGA | FT% | AST% | ORtg | ||
| DeAndre Ayton | Fr | 35 | 34.3% | 83.3% | 42.4% | 0.73 | 0.10 | 130.3 |
| Jahlil Okafor | Fr | 0 | — | — | 46.2% | 0.51 | 0.09 | 119.9 |
| Andre Drummond | Fr | 0 | 0.0% | — | 31.0% | 0.30 | 0.03 | 103.4 |
| Joel Embiid | Fr | 5 | 20.0% | 100.0% | 83.6% | 0.69 | 0.12 | 116.5 |
| Karl Anthony Towns | Fr | 8 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 0.81 | 0.12 | 126.8 |
| Anthony Davis | Fr | 20 | 15.0% | 100.0% | 60.2% | 0.71 | 0.08 | 138.8 |
| Steven Adams | Fr | 0 | — | — | 40.0% | 0.44 | 0.05 | 113.0 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | Fr | 0.61 | 0.09 | 118.4 |
Potential shooter: Ayton has good touch, and there is potential for him to improve in this area. His 73% at the FT line is great for a young center.
Defense:
| ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | STL% | BLK% | DRtg | ||
| DeAndre Ayton | Fr | 13.5 | 28.2 | 21.4 | 1.0% | 6.1% | 97.5 |
| Jahlil Okafor | Fr | 14.7 | 18.2 | 16.6 | 1.5% | 4.5% | 94.7 |
| Andre Drummond | Fr | 13.9 | 15.6 | 14.8 | 1.8% | 9.9% | 95.8 |
| Joel Embiid | Fr | 12.8 | 26.5 | 20.3 | 2.3% | 11.5% | 89.2 |
| Karl Anthony Towns | Fr | 14.2 | 22.4 | 18.6 | 1.4% | 11.2% | 77.3 |
| Anthony Davis | Fr | 11.3 | 24.2 | 18.2 | 2.5% | 13.8% | 79.3 |
| Steven Adams | Fr | 15.2 | 19.2 | 17.2 | 1.9% | 11.2% | 86.3 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | Fr | 19.7 | 25.1 | 22.5 | 2.4% | 7.5% | 83.4 |
Low blocks and steals: Ayton’s low block and steal rates are disconcerting. This is a classic red flag. Ayton’s defense is currently at the Jahlil Okafor level, which could spell disaster at the NBA level. His defensive rating is also low, as his defensive shortcoming hurt his team.
Dominant rebounding: Ayton’s rebounding statistics compare favourably to every comp on the list. Rebounding translates well to the NBA, so he should be a great rebounder right away.
It seems that Ayton has the raw tools to be an NBA great. He has already proven his ability as a scorer and rebounder. His path to superstardom hinges on his defensive development. His value will be hurt tremendously if it does not improve.
1 Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Marvin Bagley
5. Trae Young
6. Wendell Carter Jr.
7. Zhaire Smith
8. Elie Okobo
9. Michael Porter Jr.
10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Mo Bamba
12. Anfernee Simons
13. Josh Okogie
14. Troy Brown
15. Mikal Bridges
16. Collin Sexton
17. De’Anthony Melton
18. Robert Williams
19. Jacob Evans
20. Miles Bridges
21. Dzanan Musa
22. Gary Trent Jr.
23. Kevin Huerter
24. Melvin Frazier
25. Donte DiVincenzo
26. Lonnie Walker
27. Kevin Knox
28. Landry Shamet
29. Shake Milton
30. Mitchell Robinson
31. Brandon McCoy
32. Keita Bates-Diop
Best of the rest:
Bruce Brown, Trevon Duval, Jarred Vanderbilt, Justin Jackson, Chandler Hutchison, Omari Spellman, Khyri Thomas, Isaac Bonga, Malik Newman, Jalen Brunson, Rawle Alkins, Gary Clark, Kevin Hervey, Kenrich Williams, Bonzie Colson, Jevon Carter
Hoop Strategy 