2018 Big Board – Tier 2 – NBA draft

Tier 1 – Doncic, Jackson, Ayton

Tier 2:

4. Marvin Bagley
5. Trae Young
6. Wendell Carter Jr.
7. Zhaire Smith
8. Elie Okobo
9. Michael Porter Jr.

There are more question marks here. Players could turn into superstars, but the probability is lower, and/or the risk is higher.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

4. Marvin Bagley

Risk 8.5 /10
Potential 10 /10

Bagley could be somewhere between Chris Bosh and Kevin Durant. But his odds of reaching that superstar level are lower than the players in tier 1.

Key issues:

1. Bagley does not create much of his own offense. He is a rebounder and cutter.
2. Bagley is a mediocre defender on both interior and perimeter. His steal and block rates are bad.
3. Will he be able to shoot?

I think there is a low probability that Bagley will solve all 3 of these problems.

However, if he can just solve either #2 or #3, it would help to keep him on the court.

To play PF, Bagley needs to improve his 3pt shot.

To play C, Bagley needs to improve his interior defense.

If he can’t do either 2 or 3, it will severely limit his value.

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Marvin Bagley	Fr	25.9	0.64	76.9%	56.0%	41.2%
Chris Bosh	Fr	22.4	0.63
Kevin Durant	Fr	33.3	0.59
Carmelo Anthony	Fr	29.3	0.54
Noah Vonleh	Fr	21.4	0.60	59.3%	37.5%	35.4%
Thomas Robinson	Jr	30.0	0.55	64.0%	60.0%	32.0%
Paul George	So	27.9	0.57

Finisher: Bagley shot 77% at the rim, on only 56% assisted. That’s a terrific rate. It is not as impressive when you consider that many of these shots were put backs. Despite this, Bagley is a good finisher at the rim, scoring on a simple array of post moves, cuts, put backs, and transition baskets. This led to highly efficient offense, despite a lack of shot creation.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Marvin Bagley	Fr	58	39.7%	87.0%	47.5%	0.63	0.08	128.1
Chris Bosh	Fr					0.73	0.08	120.7
Kevin Durant	Fr					0.82	0.09	120.3
Carmelo Anthony	Fr					0.71	0.12	116.8
Noah Vonleh	Fr	33	48.5%	93.8%	62.0%	0.72	0.05	113.3
Thomas Robinson	Jr	15	50.0%	71.0%	47.0%	0.68	0.13	109.7
Paul George	So					0.91	0.23	108.0

Poor shooting: Although Bagley shot 40% from 3pt land, it was on only 58 attempts. This number is suspect when we look at his 63% FT shooting. Bagley’s assist rate is low compared to the wings with better shot creation.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Marvin Bagley	Fr	13.7	21.4	17.8	1.4%	2.6%	97.5
Chris Bosh	Fr	11.6	22.3	16.9	1.7%	6.8%	93.5
Kevin Durant	Fr	9.0	24.0	16.6	3.0%	5.5%	92.3
Carmelo Anthony	Fr	9.5	19.5	14.9	2.2%	2.3%	92.5
Noah Vonleh	Fr	10.8	27.3	19.4	1.9%	5.5%	90.7
Thomas Robinson	Jr	11.2	30.4	21.4	2.0%	2.9%	84.2
Paul George	So	6.7	19.0	12.8	4.2%	3.0%	93.7

Strong rebounding: Bagley is an excellent rebounder compared to his comps here. We should consider that these are average numbers for a center. His offensive rebouding stands out as a unique trait.

Low steals and blocks: Bagley has the lowest steal rate of any of these comps. His block rate is also low. These are red flags for an NBA prospect. His defensive rating is also the lowest of these comps. Bagley is a quick and mobile athlete, but his defensive awareness is lacking, particularly in help defense. However, some brights spots are noticeable. Synergy measures him at 0.79 PPP allowed on D, good for 74th percentile. This is better than I would have thought. He fairly particularly well playing 1on1, with 0.480 points per one-on-one possession, 94th percentile.

I am worried that Bagley might end up as a dynamic energy forward rather than the multidimensional scorer which he may be capable of. However, he has shown amazing flashes of potential, so he deserves to be drafted early.

 

 

5. Trae Young

Risk 9 /10
Potential 10 /10

Trae Young could be the next Stephen Curry. The deep pull up 3 is arguably the most dangerous weapon in the history of the NBA.

However, Trae Young might turn out to be the worst defender in the league. This would hurt his value tremendously.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Trae Young	Fr	37.2	0.59	53.5%	11.1%	39.8%
Stephen Curry	Fr	30.1	0.62
JJ Redick	Sr	31.9	0.63

Steph Curry level shooting: Trae Young compares well with Stephen Curry on offense. Curry only approached Young’s usage in his 3rd year, when he used 38% of the possession at a TS% of .605. Those are truly amazing numbers. Trae Young’s 36% from 3 on 10.25 3PTA was close to Curry’s 3rd year of 39% on 9.88 3PTA.

Challenged at the rim: Curry made the leap to superstar after improving his FG% at the rim. This will also be more difficult for Trae (smaller, less athletic). This factor limits him upside. On the other hand, Trae was excellent at getting to the FT line, with a 44% FT rate. Furthermore, his elite passing may compensate for his lack of finishing ability.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Trae Young	Fr	328	36.0%	27.1%	44.3%	0.86	0.49	114.7
Stephen Curry	Fr		40.8%			0.86	0.19	121.1
JJ Redick	Sr		42.1%			0.86	0.16	119.5

Prolific passing: Trae is already a great passer, with an incredible 49% assist rate compared with Curry, who improved from 19% (as a freshman) to 40% (as a junior) in his college career. Supporting their comparable shooting abilities, Trae young was able to achieve a similar FT profile, hitting 86% on 8.5 FTA, while Curry hit 88% on 7.4 FTA in his junior year.

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Trae Young	Fr	1.3	9.9	5.8	2.5%	0.7%	106.9
Stephen Curry	Fr	3.2	13.0	8.1	3.5%	0.7%	91.6
JJ Redick	Sr	0.5	4.9	2.8	2.2%	0.1%	100.7

Subpar defense: Young’s rebound rates and steal and block rates are poor. But overall, he was worse. His 107 defensive rating is very bad. We should expect Trae young to be a negative on defense. Will be he be a 1 percentile defender or a 25th percentile defender? Synergy gives some hope that he can be an average defender. He allowed 0.87PPP, 49th percentile. Allowed 0.844 points per Isolation possession [41st percentile]

I expect Trae’s incredible pull up shot to translate to the NBA. I think he needs to improve his finishing at the rim, and/or his defense in order to reach his potential. If he becomes one of the worst defenders in the league, his offense may not compensate enough for these shortcomings.

 

6. Wendell Carter Jr.

Risk 8/10
Potential 9.5/10

Mental advantages compensate for physical mediocrity. Wendell Carter Jr. projects as an Al Horford, or maybe a poor man’s Karl Anthony Towns.

Questions

1. Does Carter have enough athleticism?
2. Will Carter be able to produce offense?

Carter has neither outstanding size, nor outstanding athleticism. He is a difficult player to evaluate because his basketball IQ is great, but it’s not clear whether this is compensation for his lack of physical gifts.

When you watch tape of Carter, it becomes clear that he has some other physical gifts. For his size, he is balanced, coordinated, and has a great sense of timing. He has great body control. For instance, he is good at challenging shots while moving his body around the defender to avoid the foul.

I think his probability of being a solid, borderline all star is higher than many other lottery players.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Wendell Carter	Fr	22.7	0.63	70.2%	62.4%	36.8%
Karl Anthony Towns	Fr	23.7	0.63	75.7%	46.4%	43.1%
Al Horford	Fr	14.2	0.52
Nikola Jokic	Intl	23.7	0.61
Paul Millsap	Fr	21.2	0.61

Efficient scorer: Carter shows great efficiency on offense, with a usage and TS% comparable to Karl Anthony Towns. Of course, we should note that a much higher percentage of his shots at the rim were assisted. Per Synergy, he was roughly 90th percentile on offense. Post-ups were by far his least efficient and also his highest volume play. This actually helps Carter’s NBA projection, because post-ups are rarely used in the modern NBA. Carter is very effective in various other play types: spot-up, transition, put backs, cuts.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Wendell Carter	Fr	46	41.3%	94.7%	52.7%	0.74	0.13	125.3
Karl Anthony Towns	Fr	8	25.0%	50.0%	52.3%	0.81	0.12	126.8
Al Horford	Fr					0.58	0.07	114.5
Nikola Jokic	Intl					0.69	0.19	120.6
Paul Millsap	Fr					0.64	0.05	120.4

Shooting potential: Carter was also excellent at drawing fouls. This is notable, because his 74% is a great mark for a freshman big man. Although he only shot 46 3s, he made 41%, and his balanced motion gives him a good chance of developing an outside shot at the NBA level.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Wendell Carter	Fr	12.8	23.2	18.3	1.7%	7.6%	92.0
Karl Anthony Towns	Fr	14.2	22.4	18.6	1.4%	11.2%	77.3
Al Horford	Fr	12.1	20.7	16.6	2.1%	7.6%	87.7
Nikola Jokic	Intl	10.6	25.8	18.3	2.5%	3.2%	100.6
Paul Millsap	Fr	16.2	23.4	19.8	1.6%	5.4%	91.1

Lack of steals and blocks: Carter has a poor steal rate, with mediocre block rate. This is a red flag for most prospects. However, I am comforted by similarly low scores for these comps. KAT, Horford, and Jokic are all highly productive big men who are similar to Carter in terms of basketball IQ. Carter should tremendous defensive awareness which should compensate for the lack of explosive defensive playmaking. Per synergy, he allowed 0.81 PPP on defense, for 67th percentile. He has room to improve, but it is certainly not a hopeless situation.

Strong rebounder: Though he is not dominant like Ayton, Carter is a solid rebounder. He can contribute on both the offensive and defensive rebounds. Arguably, both Carter and Bagley would have produced higher rebounding totals if they were not playing next to each other at Duke.

Overall, Carter has the basketball IQ to develop into a highly skilled big man like Al Horford or maybe even Karl Anthony Towns. He has superstar upside, although the chances are more slim than the more athletic prospects above.

 

7. Zhaire Smith

Risk: 9.5 /10
Potential: 10 /10

Zhaire Smith is a freak athlete and unique prospect. Imagine Derrick Rose was forced to play Center in high school, so he focused on being an explosive and defender and offensive rebounder, leaving his point guard skills undeveloped. That is basically Zhaire Smith. In particular, this play was a flash of Derrick Rose:

The question with Zhaire is this: Will he be able to add skills to his game?

I think the obvious answer is yes. But we don’t know if there will be a limit on his development, for example, what if he never develops an above average shot? What if he cannot figure out advanced ball handling and footwork?

Picking Zhaire at 7 might seem high, but I think his upside is as high as anyone in this draft. He can clearly make a defensive contribution right away. If he cannot add offensive skills quickly enough, he either will never get to superstar level, or he will only reach that level several years later on another team.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Zhaire Smith	Fr	18.2	0.62	64.9%	58.7%	39.7%
Otto Porter	So	24.2	0.59	74.7%	60.7%	51.8%

Zhaire Smith doesn’t seem to have any good comps, so we’ll use Otto Porter even though he’s much larger.

Efficient with low usage: Zhaire only used 18% of his teams plays, and he was highly efficient while doing so. Offensive metrics of 62% TS and 129 Ortg are both excellent. He scored mostly off of cuts, transition, and put backs. This is a good starting point from which to contribute.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Zhaire Smith	Fr	38	44.7%	94.1%	46.5%	0.73	0.12	129.0
Otto Porter	So	53	22.6%	58.3%	35.3%	0.70	0.19	122.3

Shooting potential: Although he didn’t take many shots, his 45% at the 3pt line is promising. His release needs improvement, but his footwork and balance were very impressive at times. His 73% at the FT line suggests that he can improve with time.

Playmaking potential: Despite using so little of the team offense, Smith flashed potential of being a passer. He has good vision, and throws crisp passes. 12% assist rate is good considering how little he had the ball in his hands.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Zhaire Smith	Fr	9.5	11.1	10.4	2.3%	4.5%	94.4
Otto Porter	So	6.6	18.9	13.2	3.3%	3.0%	84.0

Offensive rebounding: 9.5% offensive rebound rate is dominant, especially from a wing player. He was unstoppable on the offensive glass.

Intangible defense: Per Synergy allowed 0.75PPP, 82nd percentile. Smith is an excellent defender overall, but he also contributes well to team defense. 4.5% block rate is amazing for a player of his size. He has the physical tools and the awareness to become an elite defender.

The team drafting Zhaire will need to accelerate his skill development, while also being patient with his on court expectations. I think he’s worth a top 10 pick.

 

8. Elie Okobo

Risk: 9.5 /10
Potential: 10 /10

Elie Okobo is a french player who is flying way under the radar. He has size, strength, athleticism, and a terrific jump shot. I think his potential is sky high and he could end up as a Damian Lillard or Jrue Holiday.

Everyone is asking “Who will be the next Donovan Mitchell?”. I think it’s either Zhaire Smith or Elie Okobo.

Biggest questions:

1. Will he be a good NBA defender?
2. Can he score in the NBA?

Although inconsistent, Okobo has the skills to play great defense when he is locked in. Because of his size, he can probably guard SG as well, which will help in case NBA point guards are too quick sometimes. His inconsistency opens questions about his defensive awareness, but I think he just needs more experience and focus. Okobo is an underrated athlete because he did not always maximize his athleticism on the court, and he was not part of the NBA combine.

His shot is truly excellent. Not only is he efficient, he takes very difficult shots with a quick release. He has a polished pull up and step back shot. This unique skill is part of why I think he can be a superstar one day.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	3PTA	3FG%	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Elie Okobo	Intl	25.4	0.62	177	41.8%	0.84	0.32	113.6
Damian Lillard	Jr	33.0	0.64	230	40.9%	0.89	0.27	128.5
Tony Parker	Intl	31.6	0.59			0.76	0.40	123.8
Frank Ntilikina	Intl	16.4	0.54			0.64	0.15	107.1
Evan Fournier	Intl	28.5	0.53			0.75	0.18	104.4
Rodrigue Beaubois	Intl	22.7	0.56			0.58	0.19	105.0
Nicolas Batum	Intl	20.8	0.59			0.73	0.22	109.9

Deadly shooter: Okobo’s 42% from 3 came on a great sample of 177 3PA. It is backed up by his excellent 84% at the FT line. Both of these metrics compare well with Damian Lillard’s redshirt Junior year, when he was a year older than Okobo’s 20.7 years. A crucial point is that many of Okobo’s shots came off advanced dribble moves. You can see how quickly he gets his shot off:

Attacking footwork and timing: Although Okobo sometimes fails to convert at the rim, especially in transition, at his best he shows excellent timing and footwork as he penetrates to the rim.

Playmaking potential: Okobo had an excellent 32% assist ratio. He runs plenty of pick and roll for his french team, and although he is far from polished, this experience should help him translate to an NBA team.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Elie Okobo	Intl	1.9	11.7	6.7	1.9%	0.7%	112.9
Damian Lillard	Jr	1.9	14.9	8.7	2.5%	0.7%	99.9
Tony Parker	Intl	2.0	15.6	9.1	2.9%	0.0%	103.2
Frank Ntilikina	Intl	6.0	8.6	7.3	2.2%	1.1%	104.6
Evan Fournier	Intl	5.2	10.6	7.8	3.3%	0.6%	108.5
Rodrigue Beaubois	Intl	2.0	12.1	6.9	2.8%	2.0%	–
Nicolas Batum	Intl	5.9	14.1	10.1	2.7%	2.6%	103.5

Low steal rate: As always, low steal rate is a red flag for prospects. However, I think some of this metric is related to his french team. Frank Ntilikina, for instance, had a 2.2% steal rate in the French league, which translated to a 1.9% steal rate in his rookie season. As discussed above, I think Okobo’s problem is consistency, rather than a more permanent issue like lack of lateral quickness or lack of defensive awareness.

 

9. Michael Porter Jr.

Risk: 10 /10
Potential: 10 /10

Michael Porter Jr. could turn into a poor man’s Kevin Durant. He has absurd size and an advanced jump shot.

Unfortunately, there are key questions:

1. Will he be healthy?
2. Can he become a go-to shot creator? or will be confined to jump shots?

He has already had back surgery. Now he has canceled his team meetings because of a hip injury. He is supposed to be a 20 year old Durant, not a 65 year old Durant. The problem is twofold: 1. he might not stay healthy in the NBA 2. We don’t have any stats or video footage to judge him with.

The biggest knock on Porter is his ability to drive past defenders off the dribble. At times, Porter settled for extremely difficult jump shots. While he is a great shooter, he seemed to settle for these shots when he was unable to drive past his defenders. Porter has a high center of gravity, with a raw handle. He may not be able to blow by defenders in the NBA the same way that he did against high school defenders.

Porter is not just a jump shooter. Once he has an open lane, he is a great finisher at the rim. He has great intuition on rebounds and works hard to secure them. He plays solid defense when he’s locked in, and is capable of getting blocks and steals.

Per ESPN, these are Porter’s per 40 stats (in 52 games EYBL, USAB, NCAA, etc):

32.7 pts
13.9 reb
2.2 stl
1.4 blk
63.1% 2p
32% 3pt

Per Evan Tomes on nbadraft.net, Porter shot 47% from 3 in his senior HS year.

Despite potential injury risk, Michael Porter Jr has incredibly high upside. It simply too high to pass up at this point, as we are about to get to players with a lower risk profile, but also lower upside in the next tier.

 

Tier 1

1 Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton

Tier 2

4. Marvin Bagley
5. Trae Young
6. Wendell Carter Jr.
7. Zhaire Smith
8. Elie Okobo
9. Michael Porter Jr.

Tier 3

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Mo Bamba
12. Anfernee Simons
13. Josh Okogie
14. Troy Brown
15. Mikal Bridges
16. Collin Sexton
17. De’Anthony Melton

Tier 4

18. Robert Williams
19. Jacob Evans
20. Miles Bridges
21. Dzanan Musa
22. Gary Trent Jr.
23. Kevin Huerter

Tier 5

24. Melvin Frazier
25. Donte DiVincenzo
26. Lonnie Walker
27. Kevin Knox
28. Landry Shamet
29. Shake Milton
30. Mitchell Robinson
31. Brandon McCoy
32. Keita Bates-Diop

Best of the rest:
Bruce Brown, Trevon Duval, Jarred Vanderbilt, Justin Jackson, Chandler Hutchison, Omari Spellman, Khyri Thomas, Isaac Bonga, Malik Newman, Jalen Brunson, Rawle Alkins, Gary Clark, Kevin Hervey, Kenrich Williams, Bonzie Colson, Jevon Carter