2018 Big Board – Tier 3 – NBA draft

Tier 3:

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Mo Bamba
12. Anfernee Simons
13. Josh Okogie
14. Troy Brown
15. Mikal Bridges
16. Collin Sexton
17. De’Anthony Melton

Tier 3 is a combination of some players who have a relatively high probability of being good players, bordering on all star level, but I think their odds of reaching star-superstar level are more remote: (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mo Bamba, Mikal Bridges, Collin Sexton). Plus some players with home run potential: (Anfernee Simons, Troy Brown, Josh Okogie, De’Anthony Melton)

 

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Risk: 7.5/10
Potential 9/10

A long, smooth point guard, I see Shai as a more offensively developed version of Dejounte Murray. There have not been many successful point guards of Shai’s body type. Both Anfernee Hardaway and Shaun Livingston suffered injuries, so we were unable to see their development.

Key questions:

1. Is he quick enough for the NBA?
2. Can he shoot?

Shai plays with a smoothness to his game. He seems slower on the court than he actually is. I think he has sightly below average athleticism for the NBA, but he makes up for it with giant wingspan and reach. He also seems to possess extraordinary basketball IQ and work ethic. In that way, he is a similar prospect to Wendell Carter Jr.

Shai’s shooting ability is not something he demonstrated in his freshman year. He was playing a pure point guard role. His 82% FT shooting suggests that he can develop a 3pt shot in the NBA. He did shoot 40% from 3, it was just on limited attempts. Overall, his release is good, but his footwork and balance in his shot prep is very poor. Considering Shai’s balance and footwork on his drives to the rim, I think he will be able to correct this with practice.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Fr	21.9	0.58	61.1%	13.7%	37.9%
Dejounte Murray	Fr	25.9	0.49	58.6%	32.4%	34.0%
Michael Carter-Williams	So	22.2	0.49	60.1%	18.6%	26.0%
Brandon Knight	Fr	27.0	0.55	57.0%	17.0%	36.0%
Delon Wright	Sr	22.9	0.62	64.3%	13.9%	40.4%

Efficient at the rim: Shae was efficient in his freshman year at the rim. 61% is excellent considering he only was assisted on 14% of these baskets. Shae uses his great footwork, balance, and reach to finish a variety of finger rolls and layups.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Fr	57	40.4%	82.6%	46.4%	0.82	0.29	117.0
Dejounte Murray	Fr	118	28.8%	94.1%	34.2%	0.66	0.26	99.9
Michael Carter-Williams	So	120	29.2%	62.9%	47.2%	0.69	0.40	104.8
Brandon Knight	Fr	221	38.0%	57.0%	34.0%	0.80	0.23	109.5
Delon Wright	Sr	73	35.6%	53.8%	56.5%	0.84	0.33	129.8

Shooting potential: Shai’s 40% from 3 came on only 57 attempts, but this is also backed up by his 82% FT shooting. He also gets to the FT line at a solid clip.

Playmaker: Shai is a smart player. His 29% assist rate means he should be able to play point guard. This is important. Players who can create shots for themselves and others are incredibly valuable in the modern NBA. Shai has the length to defend the SG as well, so he will allow his team to play double PG line ups.

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Fr	3.2	10.0	6.8	2.8%	1.7%	100.8
Dejounte Murray	Fr	4.1	13.7	8.8	2.8%	0.8%	100.8
Michael Carter-Williams	So	4.0	11.1	7.6	4.8%	1.7%	86.8
Brandon Knight	Fr	2.1	10.4	6.4	1.1%	0.6%	100.0
Delon Wright	Sr	4.0	13.7	9.3	4.0%	3.2%	86.9

Solid steals and blocks: Shai is active on defense. His steal rate is good, and his block rate is excellent for a point guard. Synergy supports his defensive performance, where he was in the 81st percentile. He was especially terrific against P&R handler, which is very important in the NBA.

Against his comps, Shai has a similar defensive profile to MCW’s sophomore season with better shooting. Overall his freshman season bares similarity to Delon Wright’s senior season, which is impressive.

Because Shai should be able to play defense right away, he should be able to get minutes. Coach Calipari raves about his work ethic. Although his scoring potential seems lower than many of the other lottery talents, I think he will become an important two-way NBA player. Another factor improving Shai’s utility is his length, which should give him multi-position flexibility. We see the advantage of this with a player like Delon Wright, who has the size and skill to defend SG and SF. This allows the Raptors to play 2 and 3 point guard line ups with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. It can be a tremendous advantage to have.

 

11. Mo Bamba

Risk: 9 /10
Potential: 9.5 /10

Mo Bamba is a skinny giant. He projects as another Rudy Gobert or Clint Capela. If everything goes right, he will also have a deadly jump shot.

Questions

1. Can he score outside of lobs and put backs?
2. Does he have the awareness, toughness, strength, intensity to be a lockdown defender?

Mo Bamba has tremendous potential, but he has tons of things to work on. In college he was efficient on offense because he was able to score on putbacks and cuts. At the NBA level, it won’t be as easy because his advantage in length will be lower, and his disadvantage in strength will be higher.

Bamba blocked shots at a high rate, but he was quite inconsistent. His length and footspeed is excellent, so he was able to block shots and switch on the pick and roll. On the other hand, he was muscled in the post and showed a lack of focus sometimes. Although the potential is there, he has a lot to improve. He won’t be a Rudy Gobert on length alone.

This is why I have him rated much lower than most people. Bamba’s risk profile is the inverse of Trae Young’s. Except that Bamba’s defense is less reliable than Trae’s offense.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Mo Bamba	Fr	21.3	0.59	78.8%	54.8%	32.2%
Andre Drummond	Fr	20.8	0.51	67.0%	64.0%	26.0%
Hasheem Thabeet	Jr	19.0	0.65
Rudy Gobert	Intl	16.0	0.74
Clint Capela	Intl	19.9	0.65

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Mo Bamba	Fr	51	27.5%	85.7%	44.1%	0.68	0.04	118.4
Andre Drummond	Fr	0	0.0%	—	31.0%	0.30	0.03	103.4
Hasheem Thabeet	Jr					0.51	0.03	123.4
Rudy Gobert	Intl					0.00	0.03	124.8
Clint Capela	Intl					0.56	0.09	120.2

Shooting potential: Bamba at least shows a willingness to shoot. His 68% from the FT line is good for a defensive big man.

Limited to putbacks: Bamba was a very poor post-up scorer and more importantly, he was very poor as the Roll Man. This is a key skill which will help determine his success in the league.

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Mo Bamba	Fr	12.2	28.3	20.2	1.5%	13.0%	88.4
Andre Drummond	Fr	13.9	15.6	14.8	1.8%	9.9%	95.8
Hasheem Thabeet	Jr	13.4	21.8	17.9	1.1%	12.0%	84.2
Rudy Gobert	Intl	11.3	19.4	15.3	1.8%	7.6%	101.2
Clint Capela	Intl	14.1	26.8	20.5	1.9%	7.0%	102.4

Rebounding and blocking: Bamba has a terrific block rate compared to his comps. He also has elite rebounding. Defensive rating of 88.4 is top flight as well.

Overall, Bamba’s profile is disturbingly similar to Hasheem Thabeet’s. Obviously, that is only one comp, but it is possible that Bamba’s dominance at the college level may not translate.

Although Bamba could be a star, I dislike his risk profile because he seems limited on offense, so his potential is lower. Furthermore, small ball NBA means that there is a high supply of big men, with only 1 position (Center) on the court compared to 2 (both PF and C). As such, the margin for error from a player like Bamba is much lower.

 

12. Anfernee Simons

Risk: 10/10
Potential: 10/10

This is a huge home run swing. I think Anfernee Simons could be a scorer on the Kyrie Irving level.

There is extreme risk because Simons did not play college basketball. He was good in high school, but more one dimensional than a prospect like Michael Porter Jr. In his 2018 high school class, he is a top 10 prospect.

We have minimal information on him, but he did show up to the NBA combine. Let’s remember that Zhaire Smith is considered to be a freak athlete. Perhaps the best athlete in this draft. Let’s compare them.

NBA Combine stats from nbadraft.net:

Player	Standing Vert.	No Step Jump	Max Vert.	Maximum Jump	Lane Agility	Shuttle Run	3/4 Court Sprint
					(secs)	(secs)	(secs)
Anfernee Simons	32	10’11.5″	41.5	11’9″	11.27	3.16	3.1
Zhaire Smith	33	11’1″	41.5	11’9.5″	11.02	3.15	3.05

Player	Height w/o Shoes	Height w/ Shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Standing Reach	Body Fat %	Hand Length	Hand Width
Anfernee Simons	6′ 2.25”	6′ 3.25”	183.2	6′ 9.25”	8′ 3.5”	7.70%	8.75	9
Zhaire Smith	6′ 2.75”	6′ 4”	198.6	6′ 9.75”	8′ 4”	6.05%	8.75	8.25

These are almost identical results. The biggest difference is probably weight, which is an area that Anfernee can definitely improve.

I see star potential in his game as well. He is a multi-dimensional scorer. He is particularly adept at scoring on pull up threes. He has an extremely quick release, able to get his shot off with a defender right next to him. He does this in a variety of situations: coming off of the screen, on the fast break, dribbling back out to the 3pt line, etc.

ESPN: “He shot 80-178 from 3 (45 percent) in 25 games this season, according to Krossover.”

Simons has an advanced handle. He uses dribble moves to get open for his deadly pull up jumper, but also to get into the lane.

Simons also has a well polished floater and runner. He sometimes displays excellent footwork and touch at the rim, even throwing down monster dunks. Other times, he seems unable to unlock his athleticism. Strength is an issue here, and I think he has high potential to improve in the next 2-3 years.

His defense is a big question mark. He is inconsistent, sometimes showing great footspeed and locking down his man. Other times, he gets lost, or gets blown by. It’s not clear whether this is lack of defensive awareness or lack of effort. I think this is something which will improve in time, as it becomes more focused on it.

Whichever team drafts Anfernee Simons will need to take a similar approach as with Zhaire Smith. A lot of patience and confidence that he will achieve his potential. He is one of the youngest prospects at 19.0 years.

Part of my reasoning for valuing Simons this high is the rare skills which he possesses (pull up shot, dribble moves, athleticism). I think he can be a creator on the Damian Lillard or Kyrie Irving level if he works hard. Getting a superstar creator in the draft is far more valuable than a solid role player or starter, so it’s worth the risk here.

 

13. Josh Okogie

Risk: 9 /10
Potential 9.5 /10

Josh Okogie is an excellent athlete who has potential as both a shooter and a defender. He has potential to be a playmaker if he can improve his handle and finishing at the rim.

He has a well developed 3 point shot, including pull ups. Pull up jumpers are a unique skill, and if he can improve his ball handling, he has star potential.

We look at Josh Okogie, Troy Brown, and Mikal Bridges together, below:

14. Troy Brown

Risk: 9 /10
Potential 9.5 /10

Troy Brown is one of the youngest players in the draft at 18.9. While he doesn’t have explosive athleticism, he makes up for it with length and basketball IQ. He is already an excellent defender, rebounder, and passer.

If he can improve his jump shot, he has star upside with incredible versatility. He may be able to play 4.

15. Mikal Bridges

Risk: 7 /10
Potential 8.5 /10

Mikal Bridges improved tremendously over the course of his college career. He finishes as a hyperefficient player on both ends of the court. However, he has not demonstrated an ability to be a playmaker, which reduces his upside. Furthermore, his rebounding and defense suggest that he will not be able to play 4, and may have trouble against larger opponents.

Let’s compare these three wings.

Offense:

Age			USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
19.8	Josh Okogie	So	27.0	0.55	54.5%	43.9%	29.3%
18.9	Troy Brown	Fr	21.0	0.53	63.4%	26.5%	34.6%
21.8	Mikal Bridges	Jr	23.2	0.66	67.9%	46.3%	41.6%
	Otto Porter	So	24.2	0.59	74.7%	60.7%	51.8%
	Robert Covington	Sr	27.0	0.56	71.6%	55.7%	37.3%
	Paul George	So	27.9	0.57
	Tobias Harris	Fr	27.3	0.54

Troy – Inside finisher: Brown stands out as the best finisher near the basket by far. He was only assisted on 27% of these baskets. He has good footwork and balance on his way to the basket, with a nice touch on a variety of angles. Although Okogie is a poor finisher at the rim, this is one skill which can be improved rapidly at the NBA. Bridges is a good finisher too.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg	TOV%
Josh Okogie	So	100	38.0%	73.7%	50.6%	0.82	0.15	111.8	0.13
Troy Brown	Fr	110	29.1%	87.5%	32.6%	0.74	0.19	105.8	0.19
Mikal Bridges	Jr	239	43.5%	95.2%	28.2%	0.85	0.11	132.7	0.09
Otto Porter	So	53	22.6%	58.3%	35.3%	0.70	0.19	122.3	0.10
Robert Covington	Sr	145	44.8%	92.3%	32.0%	0.78	0.10	114.1	0.14
Paul George	So					0.91	0.23	108.0	0.18
Tobias Harris	Fr					0.75	0.10	112.4	0.11

Mikal – Sharpshooter: Bridges was incredibly efficient with 44% from 3 on 239 attempts. He also shot 85% at the FT line. He should be an excellent NBA shooter. The trade-off however, is that Bridges was assisted on almost all of his 3s, had meagre assists, and did not get to the FT line. This suggests that he has no upside as a shot creator. Robert Covington is a reasonable comparison on offense.

Okogie – Dynamic shooter: Okogie has lower percentages, but he was assisted on less of his 3s. He has a good pull up shot, giving him a deadly weapon off the dribble and in transition. His assist rate is reasonable, and he could develop as a playmaker. He also has a great ability to get to the FT line. Okogie is almost a blend between Troy Brown and Mikal Bridges.

Troy – Playmaker: Troy Brown is a more prolific passer. He has great vision. I normally ignore turnovers because most player reduce turnovers over time, but it is worth noting here that Brown has a much higher turnover rate. Brown’s shooting percentages are much lower, but his FT% is not bad, and he took a lot of difficult shots are Oregon. Many players have developed their 3pt shot after entering the league. Otto Porter only shot 23% on his 3s in his sophomore year. Brown has a lot of time to catch up.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Josh Okogie	So	7.1	13.3	10.1	2.9%	2.8%	103.1
Troy Brown	Fr	5.9	18.0	12.0	2.9%	0.8%	100.9
Mikal Bridges	Jr	5.2	13.7	9.7	2.7%	3.5%	97.4
Otto Porter	So	6.6	18.9	13.2	3.3%	3.0%	84.0
Robert Covington	Sr	10.3	18.6	14.5	4.0%	5.8%	92.9
Paul George	So	6.7	19.0	12.8	4.2%	3.0%	93.7
Tobias Harris	Fr	7.6	20.7	14.0	1.4%	3.4%	98.3

Brown & Bridges – lockdown defenders: Brown can defend multiple positions. Per Synergy, Brown surrenders just 0.656 points per possession on overall defense, a sterling number that puts him in the 89th percentile. he is also deadly 1 on 1, with 0.514 points per Isolation possession, 87th percentile. Bridges defender in the 91st percentile. However, he is less versatile as his size prevents him from guarding larger players.

All 3 – great steals and blocks: All three players have excellent steal and block rates. I think this is a key indicator that they have upside as top 3&D wings like Porter or Covington. Although Okogie’s Synergy metrics are mediocre, he clearly has the athleticism and explosive ability to make plays on defense.

Brown – rebounder: Brown is the best rebounder of the 3, comparing well to Porter and Covington. I think his size gives him potential to play stretch 4 in the NBA.

Overall, Brown and Okogie are significantly younger, given them time to improve. Although Bridges is hyperefficient on both ends, he is also older, and more one dimensional. As such, I think it’s worth drafting Brown and Okogie first.

 

16. Collin Sexton

Risk: 8 /10
Potential 9 /10

Collin Sexton is one of the most fiery and competitive prospects of recent years. He is very strong, and could turn into an Eric Bledsoe type, but he seems to be less explosive athletically.

Questions

1. Can he improve his shot?
2. Does he have the quickness to dominate?

I love Sexton’s competitiveness. He presses the action, which is a good thing at this point. However, if he does not improve his efficiency, being a high usage player will hurt his team instead of help. He could turn into a star with better shooting, especially on his pull up jump shot.

Sexton was very good at getting to the rim and playing physical defense. However, it is not clear how much of his dominance was due to strength as opposed to quickness. Against quicker, longer athletes, Sexton’s bullying his way into the paint may not be effective. I fear that Sexton’s physical advantages will be limited at the NBA level, and his forcefulness might make that problem worse.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Collin Sexton	Fr	32.9	0.57	62.2%	24.7%	36.4%
Eric Bledsoe	Fr	20.3	0.57
Elfrid Payton	So	25.4	0.53	70.4%	24.5%	24.3%

High usage penetrator: Sexton was a good finisher at the rim considering he was only assisted on 25% of his baskets. However, he is not elite, and he may be bothered by better athletes.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg	TOV%
Collin Sexton	Fr	131	33.6%	31.8%	57.5%	0.78	0.28	113.1	0.14
Eric Bledsoe	Fr					0.67	0.17	102.8	0.23
Elfrid Payton	So	54	25.9%	35.7%	64.9%	0.61	0.34	106.0	0.18

Shooting potential: Sexton only shot 34% from 3. However, he took many difficult shots, including pull up 3s. Pull up 3s are a deadly weapon in the NBA. Provided his can improve his percentages, this could be an important skill. Sexton’s 78% from the FT line suggests that he is a good shooter, but he has more work to do.

Playmaker: Sexton was quite an efficient playmaker, with a reasonable assist to turnover ratio.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Collin Sexton	Fr	4.1	9.8	7.1	1.6%	0.3%	104.8
Eric Bledsoe	Fr	1.9	8.5	5.4	2.6%	1.1%	95.1
Elfrid Payton	So	4.3	13.2	8.7	3.9%	1.8%	98.1

Worrisome D metrics: Sexton’s steal and block rates are surprisingly low for a competitive and athletic player. His defensive rating of 105 is quite poor, and synergy ranks him in the 61st percentile on defense.

Sexton is hurt in some ways by his high usage and competitiveness. His defensive numbers are red flags, suggesting that he may be less effective at the NBA level. This is directly contradictory to what he needs to do to improve: become more efficient. As such, Sexton has a much harder path to being an NBA star than most people think. I’ll be rooting for a player who tries hard in the 99th percentile in any case.

17. De’Anthony Melton

Risk: 9 /10
Potential 9 /10

De’Anthony Melton is a stand out defender, with terrific basketball IQ. He is far removed from being a star scorer, but he seems to be capable in every other aspect of the game.

Questions:

1. Will he be able to shoot?
2. Will he develop scoring capabilities?

Melton had a usage of just 18% in his freshman season. It is worth noting that his freshman season was in 2017, and he did not play in 2018 due to the NCAA FBI investigation.

Melton seems to be a lockdown defender like Tony Allen or Patrick Beverley. He needs to add a 3pt shot in order to be enough of an offensive threat to stay on the court. Additionally, he plays point guard, and he has legitimate potential as a playmaker. This could give him star potential.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
De’Anthony Melton	Fr	17.7	0.53	58.2%	42.2%	34.0%
Delon Wright	Sr	22.9	0.62	64.3%	13.9%	40.4%
Avery Bradley	Fr	20.5	0.50
Elfrid Payton	So	25.4	0.53	70.4%	24.5%	24.3%

Subpar scoring threat: Melton was a low volume player in his freshman season. He was a capable finisher at the rim, but did not create a large portion of these plays for himself. One positive is his ability to get to the free throw line. His 47% FT/FG rate is excellent.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg	TOV%
De’Anthony Melton	Fr	74	28.4%	85.7%	47.2%	0.71	0.23	110.8	0.18
Delon Wright	Sr	73	35.6%	53.8%	56.5%	0.84	0.33	129.8	0.14
Avery Bradley	Fr		38.1%			0.55	0.12	106.4	0.11
Elfrid Payton	So	54	25.9%	35.7%	64.9%	0.61	0.34	106.0	0.18

Shooting potential: Melton has a lot of work to put into his shot, but it is not broken. He has been working with shooting coach Drew Hanlan, and he says that he has taken the hitch out of his shot. Time will tell if he can improve enough to make an impact as a shooter.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
De’Anthony Melton	Fr	6.0	13.7	9.9	4.0%	3.9%	99.2
Delon Wright	Sr	4.0	13.7	9.3	4.0%	3.2%	86.9
Avery Bradley	Fr	3.4	6.5	5.0	2.4%	1.7%	97.7
Elfrid Payton	So	4.3	13.2	8.7	3.9%	1.8%	98.1

Rebounding: Melton is a good rebounder for a player of his size.

Stellar D metrics: Melton’s steal and block rates are superb. Melton has an outstanding wingspan 6’8.5 and reach 8’3.5. He should be capable of defending 1s, 2s, and 3s. His block rate is especially unique for a guard.

Melton brings incredible defense and intangibles. The fact that he sat out this season may have helped his development if it forced him to focus on his jump shot. Melton could be a top 10 defender in the league, with upside for development on offense.

 

 

Tier 1

1 Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton

Tier 2

4. Marvin Bagley
5. Trae Young
6. Wendell Carter Jr.
7. Zhaire Smith
8. Elie Okobo
9. Michael Porter Jr.

Tier 3

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Mo Bamba
12. Anfernee Simons
13. Josh Okogie
14. Troy Brown
15. Mikal Bridges
16. Collin Sexton
17. De’Anthony Melton

Tier 4

18. Robert Williams
19. Jacob Evans
20. Miles Bridges
21. Dzanan Musa
22. Gary Trent Jr.
23. Kevin Huerter

Tier 5

24. Melvin Frazier
25. Donte DiVincenzo
26. Lonnie Walker
27. Kevin Knox
28. Landry Shamet
29. Shake Milton
30. Mitchell Robinson
31. Brandon McCoy
32. Keita Bates-Diop

Best of the rest:
Bruce Brown, Trevon Duval, Jarred Vanderbilt, Justin Jackson, Chandler Hutchison, Omari Spellman, Khyri Thomas, Isaac Bonga, Malik Newman, Jalen Brunson, Rawle Alkins, Gary Clark, Kevin Hervey, Kenrich Williams, Bonzie Colson, Jevon Carter