2018 Big Board – Tier 4 – NBA draft

Tier 4:

Another peg down in terms of probability of stardom. Robert Williams is a victim of much lower demand for centers in the modern NBA.

18. Robert Williams
19. Jacob Evans
20. Miles Bridges
21. Dzanan Musa
22. Gary Trent Jr.
23. Kevin Huerter

 

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

18. Robert Williams

Risk 8.5 /10
Potential: 9 /10

Robert Williams projects as a Clint Capela or Jordan Bell. He could be an elite Lob&D center.

Questions:

1. Will he be an elite defender?
2. Will he be an elite roll man?

Williams’ value needs to be astronomical value on defense if he is to be a star. If his defense is subpar, there are plenty of other centers who might contribute more in defense or 3pt shooting to add more value.

Williams is clearly one of the best interior defenders at the college level. His length is not absurd like Mo Bamba, but compares well to Clint Capela. Williams has a better defensive awareness than Mo Bamba, which makes him a better bet as a switchable PNR defender. In my mind, they are much close in value than people think. However, Bamba’s length gives him a bit more upside if everything pans out.

Offense:

		USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
Robert Williams	So	19.3	0.61	83.6%	69.2%	40.0%
Jordan Bell	Jr	18.0	0.66	71.4%	52.6%	49.2%
Clint Capela	Intl	19.9	0.65
Draymond Green	Sr	28.2	0.54

Strong finisher: Williams has great metrics around the basket. Per Synergy, he scored 1.505 points per shot around the rim in the half court, which is 97th percentile. At the same time, only 6% of his plays came as the roll man in the PNR. This is a necessary skill to be an effective lob threat, so we don’t have much evidence with which to judge the crucial PNR situation which makes Clint Capela or Rudy Gobert so effective.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Robert Williams	So	12	0.0%	—	31.8%	0.47	0.11	114.1
Jordan Bell	Jr	14	21.4%	100.0%	43.5%	0.70	0.11	123.9
Clint Capela	Intl					0.56	0.09	120.2
Draymond Green	Sr		38.8%			0.72	0.24	109.9

Passing potential: Williams has flashed potential as a passer. He was rarely used in that situation in college, but this could give him extra value down the road in high post and hand off situations. Note that this comparison is to Draymond’s senior year, so there is time to improve.

FT Shooting concerns: Although Williams will probably not be asked to shoot from the perimeter, his FT shooting is bad enough right now that he could have trouble staying on the court near the end of games.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Robert Williams	So	10.4	27.2	19.2	1.8%	9.8%	91.9
Jordan Bell	Jr	12.4	22.3	17.7	2.5%	8.5%	88.2
Clint Capela	Intl	14.1	26.8	20.5	1.9%	7.0%	102.4
Draymond Green	Sr	8.1	28.4	18.9	2.7%	3.4%	83.4

Shot blocker: Williams has excellent timing on his blocks. He is very patient shows amazing anticipation and quick reflexes. He is the most NBA ready shot blocker in the draft (partially because Jaren Jackson Jr. has foul issues).

Dominant rebounding: Williams is a superb rebounder with an instinctive ability to anticipate where the ball is going, and the quickness to get there. His metrics are just as good as Ayton or Mo Bamba.

Overall, I see Williams as an excellent defender and rebounder, with a chance to be a lob threat on the Clint Capela level. However, I think the margin of error is very low. He will need to get at least 80% of the way to being Clint Capela / Rudy Gobert in each category (defense, rebounding, lob threat) in order to reach that star level.

 

19. Jacob Evans

Risk: 8.5 /10
Potential: 9 /10

Evans has potential as a 3&D stud on the Otto Porter or Robert Covington level, with some untapped playmaking potential as well. There is an argument for him to be drafted before Okogie / Brown / Mikal Bridges in Tier 3.

However, his age, 21, means he is probably further along in his development than Okogie (19.8) and Brown (18.9). His stats are less conclusive than Mikal Bridges in terms of shooting.

That said, I like Evans because he is a very smart and capable defender, capable of being elite at the NBA level. He has good steal and block rates as well.

Let’s compare him to Miles Bridges below.

20. Miles Bridges

Risk 8 /10
Potential 8.5 /10

Miles Bridges projects as a Tobias Harris. He is a better rebounder than most of the wing prospects, so he could play 4.

However, I question his defensive abilities. His steal rate is low. His FT rate is also very low. Even though Miles Bridges seems like a strong, athletic player, his red flags suggest otherwise. His great shooting potential makes up for it.

Offense:

Age			USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
21.0	Jacob Evans	Jr	22.4	0.54	67.1%	43.4%	35.3%
20.3	Miles Bridges	So	27.1	0.57	65.6%	52.4%	40.9%
	Otto Porter	So	24.2	0.59	74.7%	60.7%	51.8%
	Robert Covington	Sr	27.0	0.56	71.6%	55.7%	37.3%
	Paul George	So	27.9	0.57
	Tobias Harris	Fr	27.3	0.54

Miles – Efficient offense: Miles Bridges was efficient on offense, but a large portion of his plays came from putbacks, cuts and in transition. He was reasonably proficient as the PNR ball handler and in isolation, suggesting his has some shot creation abilities.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg
Jacob Evans	Jr	162	37.0%	86.7%	30.2%	0.75	0.20	116.7
Miles Bridges	So	195	36.4%	90.1%	23.9%	0.85	0.17	118.3
Otto Porter	So	53	22.6%	58.3%	35.3%	0.70	0.19	122.3
Robert Covington	Sr	145	44.8%	92.3%	32.0%	0.78	0.10	114.1
Paul George	So					0.91	0.23	108.0
Tobias Harris	Fr					0.75	0.10	112.4

Evans – Playmaking: Despite lower shooting percentages than Miles, Evans was better in Spot up and Transition situations, where he acted as the ball handler. He also got to the free throw line more often, assisted on more plays, and created more of his own FGs near the rim. Overall, Evan’s offense is arguably more NBA ready, with more versatility and potential as a secondary playmaker. Both players seem to be capable passers, and their assist rates were closer to Otto Porter and Paul George than the other comps.

Both – Shooting upside: Miles Bridges 85% at the FT line is great indicator that his 3pt shooting is for real. Evans is much worse at 75% from the FT line, so we should have a bit less confidence in his translation to the NBA three. There is room to improve, but this is a reasonable starting point. Otto Porter, for instance, was a much worse shooter at a similar point in development.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Jacob Evans	Jr	5.2	12.0	8.7	2.6%	3.7%	87.5
Miles Bridges	So	5.2	18.1	12.5	1.2%	2.5%	95.1
Otto Porter	So	6.6	18.9	13.2	3.3%	3.0%	84.0
Robert Covington	Sr	10.3	18.6	14.5	4.0%	5.8%	92.9
Paul George	So	6.7	19.0	12.8	4.2%	3.0%	93.7
Tobias Harris	Fr	7.6	20.7	14.0	1.4%	3.4%	98.3

Evans – cerebral defending: Evans defensive metrics are where he outshines Bridges. His 2.6% steal rate compares much better with these comps, and his 3.7% block rate is superb. Evans makes terrific reads when he is off the ball, and he should add value on the defensive end right away. Bridges low steal rate is a red flag, and only compares to Tobias Harris in these comps. Bridges synergy numbers are mediocre on defense as well, finishing at 62nd percentile.

Bridges – rebounding upside: Bridges is a strong defensive rebounder, something he shares with the other comps in this group. Evans is mediocre as a rebounder, which reduces his potential to play the 4 position.

Overall, I see Jacob Evans and Miles Bridges as similar in value at this point. I like Evans a bit more because of his ball handling versatility and lack of red flags (steal rate, FT rate).

21. Dzanan Musa

Risk: 9 /10
Potential: 9 /10

At this stage, there are three shooters who could have be snipers in the NBA. I value them similarly. I have bigger questions about their defense than Evans and Bridges.

At 19.1, Musa is the youngest of the 3. He is also the tallest of the 3. I believe he has the most positional versatility given his size and rebounding ability.

Musa has some of the same herky jerky or shifty movement that made Manu Ginobili such a great slasher. At times he seems quick and uses his hesitation moves to perfection. At other times, he seems to be trying too hard to create from nothing.

I think Musa is a capable scorer. He needs to improve his 3pt shot, but I think the percentages will improve as his usage rate will probably drop a bit in the NBA and he will select better shots.

22. Gary Trent Jr.

Risk: 9 /10
Potential: 9 /10

Gary Trent is criminally underrated in this draft. Certainly, he is one dimensional, relying on this shot. He is absolute sniper though. He is also a much better athlete than some people think. His profile is very similar to Devin Booker’s.

23. Kevin Huerter

Risk: 9 /10
Potential: 9 /10

Huerter is probably the most versatile of the 3, but at 21.8 years, he is about 1.5 years older than Trent’s 19.4, and almost 2 years older than Musa. He has a bit less upside.

Huerter is an efficient shooter from everywhere on the court, at the rim, in the midrange, and at the 3pt line. I think his upside is a Kyle Korver with more passing potential.

Let’s compare Musa, Trent, and Huerter:

Offense:

Age			USG	TS%	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	FG% 2pt Jumpers
19.1	Dzanan Musa	Intl	24.8	0.60
19.4	Gary Trent Jr.	Fr	19.5	0.57	65.5%	47.2%	33.6%
21.8	Kevin Huerter	So	21.5	0.64	71.2%	51.1%	51.9%
	Nik Stauskas	So	24.5	0.64	65.0%	34.6%	38.7%
	Otto Porter	So	24.2	0.59	74.7%	60.7%	51.8%
	Devin Booker	Fr	22.7	0.60	72.9%	55.8%	39.1%
	Buddy Hield	Sr	30.2	0.67	55.7%	33.7%	32.2%
	Klay Thompson	Jr	32.6	0.57	60.0%	19.0%	34.0%
	JJ Redick	Sr	31.9	0.63	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Intl	26.8	0.62

All 3 – efficient scorers: All three players are efficient scorers. Trent is easily the least efficent because he has a lower TS% on a lower usage. If anything TS% should rise as volume declines.

		3PTA	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%	AST%	ORtg	TOV%
Dzanan Musa	Intl	281	31.3%		44.0%	0.80	0.15	117.2	0.13
Gary Trent Jr.	Fr	241	40.2%	94.8%	22.7%	0.88	0.07	124.5	0.07
Kevin Huerter	So	175	41.7%	86.3%	30.7%	0.76	0.20	119.0	0.18
Nik Stauskas	So	208	44.2%	71.7%	51.8%	0.82	0.19	127.6	0.12
Otto Porter	So	53	22.6%	58.3%	35.3%	0.70	0.19	122.3	0.10
Devin Booker	Fr	141	41.1%	98.3%	22.3%	0.83	0.11	122.9	0.10
Buddy Hield	Sr	259	35.9%	76.3%	26.1%	0.82	0.13	124.1	0.14
Klay Thompson	Jr	170	39.0%	54.0%	31.0%	0.80	0.25	110.0	0.15
JJ Redick	Sr	0	42.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.86	0.16	119.5	0.10
Bogdan Bogdanovic	Intl		37.6%			0.87	0.27	116.2	0.17

Musa – physical scorer: Musa has an excellent 44% FT rate, reflecting his aggressive driving abilities. This is why he has such great efficiency, despite shooting a much lower percentage a the FT line. It is unclear if this skill will translate to the NBA, but it is a good sign for Musa’s style of play. Musa got about half his scoring from Spot-up and PNR situations. This bodes well for his translation to the NBA, where these types of plays will be important. Musa has good arsenal of attacking skills, with sneaky footwork which gets him open at the rim, and a developing floater game.

Trent – Best shooter: I would rank Trent as the best shooter. 88% from the FT line is a fantastic result to back up his 40% from three, and compares well to Redick’s senior season. Trent was mostly a catch and shoot player, but he did shoot off the dribble as well, showing quick footwork and release when under pressure.

Huerter – 2nd best shooter: He shot 42% from 3. He has a quick release from 3, and shot some deep jumpers which leave little doubt about his NBA range. He shot pullups and various advanced shots off the dribble. On the other hand, his 76% from the FT line is very low compared to his overall shooting performance.

Musa – 3rs best shooter: Looking at Musa’s 31% from 3, it’s safe to say that he needs to improve his efficiency. However, he shot many difficult 3s, including off the dribble. He has a quick release, so he should be able to get his shot off in the NBA. He shot 80% at the FT line, suggesting that he has overall shooting ability.

Musa and Huerter – Playmakers: Both Musa and Huerter were great passers for their positions. Both players have excellent vision, but Musa is clearly the better decision maker at this point.

Defense:

		ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	STL%	BLK%	DRtg
Dzanan Musa	Intl	4.1	16.1	10.0	2.5%	1.0%	101.5
Gary Trent Jr.	Fr	2.9	10.3	6.8	1.9%	0.4%	101.7
Kevin Huerter	So	3.8	12.9	8.8	1.1%	2.1%	101.8
Nik Stauskas	So	1.6	8.8	5.3	1.0%	0.9%	108.4
Otto Porter	So	6.6	18.9	13.2	3.3%	3.0%	84.0
Devin Booker	Fr	2.7	7.8	5.5	1.3%	0.3%	90.8
Buddy Hield	Sr	4.0	13.0	8.8	1.8%	1.4%	100.7
Klay Thompson	Jr	2.5	14.1	8.6	2.8%	3.1%	95.1
JJ Redick	Sr	0.5	4.9	2.8	2.2%	0.1%	100.7
Bogdan Bogdanovic	Intl	3.0	14.5	9.2	2.5%	0.7%	104.1

Musa – rebounding: Musa is easily the best rebounder. His 16% Defensive Rebound Rate suggests that he may be able to play the 4 and keep his team competitive on the boards. As he adds strength, he may be able to defend the 4 position too. Huerter is also a good defensive rebounder, and should be useful at the 3.

Musa – steals and blocks: Musa has easily the best steal rate at 2.5%, with a solid 1% block rate as well. Huerter has a low steal rate but a surprising block rate. This is very rare, and suggests that the steal rate may be less of a red flag for Huerter than it normally is. Indeed, Huerter is a much better team defender than the numbers show. He has relatively quick feet, anticipates well, and is a smart help defender. He doesn’t have outstanding lateral quickness, but he does his best.

Trent – poor peripherals: Trent has low rebound rates and low steal and block rates. However, they are very similar to Devin Booker’s numbers. Even though Trent has much worst upside

Finally, let’s look at some NBA combine data:

Player	Standing Vert.	No Step Jump	Max Vert.	Maximum Jump	Lane Agility	Shuttle Run	3/4 Court Sprint
					(secs)	(secs)	(secs)
Kevin Huerter	31	11’0.5″	38	11’7.5″	10.89	2.97	3.09
Gary Trent Jr	33.5	10’11.5″	39.5	11’5.5″	11.37	2.99	3.12
Devin Booker	27.5		34.5		10.22	2.75	3.28

Both Huerter and Trent have excellent Max verticals. They also performed well in the shuttle run and sprint.

Player	Height w/o Shoes	Height w/ Shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Standing Reach	Body Fat %	Hand Length	Hand Width
Kevin Huerter	6′ 6.25”	6′ 7.25”	194	6′ 7.5”	8′ 5.5”	8.60%	8.25	8.5
Gary Trent Jr	6′ 4.25”	6′ 5.75”	204.2	6′ 8.75”	8′ 2”	7.00%	8.5	9.5
Devin Booker	6′ 4.5”	6′ 5.75”	205.8	6′ 8.25”	8′ 6.5”	8.30%	8.75	9
Dzanan Musa		6’9″	195	6’8.5″

None of these prospects has an impressive wingspan. Again, Trent seems to be in the same mold as Devin Booker, with better jumping ability.

 

Tier 1

1 Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton

Tier 2

4. Marvin Bagley
5. Trae Young
6. Wendell Carter Jr.
7. Zhaire Smith
8. Elie Okobo
9. Michael Porter Jr.

Tier 3

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Mo Bamba
12. Anfernee Simons
13. Josh Okogie
14. Troy Brown
15. Mikal Bridges
16. Collin Sexton
17. De’Anthony Melton

Tier 4

18. Robert Williams
19. Jacob Evans
20. Miles Bridges
21. Dzanan Musa
22. Gary Trent Jr.
23. Kevin Huerter

Tier 5

24. Melvin Frazier
25. Donte DiVincenzo
26. Lonnie Walker
27. Kevin Knox
28. Landry Shamet
29. Shake Milton
30. Mitchell Robinson
31. Brandon McCoy
32. Keita Bates-Diop

Best of the rest:
Bruce Brown, Trevon Duval, Jarred Vanderbilt, Justin Jackson, Chandler Hutchison, Omari Spellman, Khyri Thomas, Isaac Bonga, Malik Newman, Jalen Brunson, Rawle Alkins, Gary Clark, Kevin Hervey, Kenrich Williams, Bonzie Colson, Jevon Carter