Top 7
- Josh Jackson
- Markelle Fultz
- Dennis Smith
- Lonzo Ball
- De’Aaron Fox
- Jonathon Isaac
- Jayson Tatum
First Round / Early Second: - John Collins
- Malik Monk
- Zach Collins
- Harry Giles
- Lauri Markkanen
- Frank Ntilikina
- Isaiah Hartenstein
- Donovan Mitchell
- Derrick White
- Jonah Bolden
- Jawun Evans
- Frank Mason III
- Frank Jackson
- OG Anunoby
- TJ Leaf
- Justin Patton
- Josh Hart
- Ike Anigbogu
- Terrance Ferguson
- Luke Kennard
- Tyler Lydon
- DJ Wilson
- Jordan Bell
- Jarrett Allen
- Caleb Swanigan
- Semi Ojeleye
- Justin Jackson
What is risk vs. potential?
This is a ranking of best NBA prospects. It is NOT a mock draft. This is a list of my rankings for the top prospects of the 2017 NBA draft.
Risk is short for Risk of a bust
Risk of a bust is the probability that the player is becomes a below average NBA player or worse.
Potential is more specifically Star potential
Unique to the NBA, Superstar potential is far more important in the draft. Why is superstar potential so important? Almost every championship team has had at least 1 superstar and 1 star. (Superstar is generally a top 5 NBA player). A teams best chance of getting a top 5 player is through the draft. Getting a good player in the draft isn’t useful, because you can get a good player through trade or free agency. You want to draft great players. There isn’t a big penalty for drafting a bust. It just looks bad. Therefore: swing for the fences.
TL;DR
Underrated
Dennis Smith, John Collins, Derrick White, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jonah Bolden, Jawun Evans, Frank Mason III, Josh Hart
Overrated
Luke Kennard, and almost every big man who can’t shoot
Sources: relied heavily on nbadraft.net, draftexpress.com, hoop-math.com, various youtube highlight videos, http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/, RealGM, nba.com
Note: If you are already familiar with the player, please skip the profile, and read the “Conclusion” section.
1. Josh Jackson
Risk 5/10
Potential 10/10
Freak athlete. Combo of quickness, speed, jumping, coordination is amazing. Great length for a SF.
Excellent rebounder. Particularly, he is a great offensive rebounder.
Can do a bit of everything on offense. But he’s lacking a go-to move. Good left handed dribbler. Step backs, turnaraounds. Even has a Jump hook.
Smart passer. Both on fast break and off the pick and roll. Can pass well with his left hand.
Getting better as a shooter 38% 3pt. Hop shot makes him a good and improving spot up shooter. Good at getting the FT line, but only shot 57%. This has to improve. This is a red flag for his shooting, because FT% is as good an indicator of a players ability to hit the NBA 3 as the college 3pt%. Shot needs serious work. The 3pt percentage was on low number of attempts. Visually, his shot is not straight.
Able to attack the basket. Finished well at 69% FG at the rim, with only 42% of those shots created by others. His FT rate was a very healthy 40%.
27.2% usage is quite high considering he is a wing and not the PG.
Sometimes the knock on freak athletes is that they lack fire and competitive edge. I think Josh Jackson has shown a competitiveness that will make him successful. Even though he didn’t demand the ball the way a dominant player would, he is young, and worked hard off the ball and on defense.
Excellent STL% at 3.1% and BLK rate at 3.5%. These are good indicators of athleticism and signs of success at the NBA level.
He is not a good shot creator at this point, either from the PNR or ISO.
TS% 0.559
FG% at rim 69.0%
%assisted at rim 41.7%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 38.1%
3FG% 37.8%
%assisted 3s 85.3%
FTA/FGA 40.3%
FT% 56.6%
Conclusion
Josh Jackson is at the top of my ranking. He is not as valuable a prospect as Anthony Davis or Karl Anthony Towns. The top 7-8 players in this draft all have star potential. The top 4-5 prospects are especially close in terms of value, which is why Boston was brilliant for trading down from #1 to #3.
I like that Jackson has potential in every aspect of the game. He can grow in all of these areas, which gives him more upside than anyone else. The question is, how much will he improve? I think his shot creation abilities will improve naturally, because his ball handling will improve, and he will gain experience in ISO situations. He is eager to play defense and pass, which are key attributes that increase his value.
His biggest weakness is his shot. Although he hit a decent percentage of 3s, his shooting motion has poor timing. 57% at the free throw line shows that he has much work to put in. Worst case, he will be a lock down defender, rebounder, and passer. Best case, perhaps he will be like Jimmy Butler. I have trouble seeing the Kawhi Leonard comparison, considering Kawhi’s the size and strength advantage. Jackson’s ceiling is incredibly high.
2. Markelle Fultz
Risk 5/10
Potential 10/10
Incredible scoring talent. Unbelievable array of moves, both on the ball, and off the ball. Floaters, spin moves, cross overs, splitting double teams, behind the back. You name it and he can do it. This is particularly impressive for a freshman.
Not a freak athlete, but he is deceptively athletic. His combination of length, above average quickness, balance, and jumping ability makes him quite good overall.
Beyond that, he is a good and willing passer. He has great court vision and sometimes tries to force passes. Generally he is efficient with the ball.
Shows some potential on defense, but this is an area of weakness. Decent steal rate at 2.4%, but what pops out is the 3.1% block rate, which is truly excellent for a guard.
Shooting is pretty good, but not exceptional. His 3pt % is great at 41%, especially since he was only assisted on 56% of those attempts. That said, his 65 FT% is a major concern. This is remarkably poor for a scorer of his ability, and it is a red flag for his shooting. He has a solid pull up jumper, which Kevin Pelton says is now the most important shot in the NBA. Per Draftexpress, Fultz hit 1.02 points per shot on pull ups compared to his 1.13 PPP on catch and shoot.
31.4% usage is high. This is a good thing, as we can expect his efficiency will improve with a reduction in this percentage.
His length gives him versatility that is crucial in today’s game. The supply of great PGs means that you might be able to play Fultz at SG, next to a PG.
TS% 0.558
FG% at rim 61.6%
%assisted at rim 17.4%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 43.8%
3FG% 41.3%
%assisted 3s 55.8%
FTA/FGA 38.3%
FT% 64.9%
Conclusion
Fultz is almost guaranteed to be star on offense. He has a complete range of skills. His shifty moves remind me of Brandon Roy, one of the best offensive performs ever in the NBA. He doesn’t have an explosive first step, but his range of shifty skills will make up for it. The risk of a bust here is quite low because of his versatility on offense.
Two issues:
1. The biggest red flag is his 65% at the FT line, which calls into question his shooting ability. How effective will he be if he turns into a below average shooter?
2. He is a relatively poor defender. He sometimes gets killed by screens or quick point guards.
These areas must improve. I think he can become at least average on defense, with some room for upside given his length and basketball IQ. His amazing chase down blocks show potential for improvement. Another mitigating factor: if Fultz is having trouble defending point guards, he at least has the length to cover shooting guards.
Fultz is a great prospect, but Josh Jackson is a better athlete, with less holes in his game.
3. Dennis Smith Jr.
Risk 6/10
Potential 10/10
Smith has freak athlete status. Quickness and explosive jumping gives him a deadly first step and hard dunking abilities to match.
He is basically 6’2, without the wingspan to add to his standing reach. Therefore, he is a smaller point guard. This is not a big problem, because his elite quickness is more important.
Not a great shooter yet, but his general form and approach are solid and it’s not hard to see him improving. Decent, but not impressive from 3 at 36% and the FT line at 71%. His footwork on the shot is good. He is well balanced even after difficult step back and cross over moves. Can shoot from both the hop shot or the 1-2 step.
He is an amazing finisher at the rim, considering how many shots he created for himself. He hit 65% at the rim, and was only assisted on 20% of those plays. That is elite. He also got to the FT line at a prolific 48.6% rate. These are terrific metrics and we can expect Smith to be a mismatch for ISO plays and dribble penetration at the NBA level.
Has good court vision, but his passing only mediocre at this point. Turnovers were absurdly high.
Took some questionable shots. However, part of that may have been a bad team situation at NC State.
Defensive intensity is lacking sometimes. However, when he tries hard, his quickness shines. He has a low center of gravity, and shows an ability to strip the ball. Steal rate is solid at 3.1%. This is a sign of athleticism and steal rate is correlated well to NBA success.
27.2% usage is a good sign. It shows that he was confident and dominated the offense.
TS% 0.562
FG% at rim 64.9%
%assisted at rim 20.4%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 30.5%
3FG% 35.8%
%assisted 3s 48.1%
FTA/FGA 48.6%
FT% 71.2%
Conclusion
Smith reminds me of Derrick Rose. Statistically, they are very similar. I think he can be a star for his elite athleticism. He strikes me as super competitive, which is important for NBA success. He has 2 key strengths. 1) explosive first step 2) finishing at the rim or drawing fouls. These are two of the most powerful and rare traits in the NBA.
He has great potential in almost every other aspect of the game too. Eric Bledsoe / Baron Davis / Steve Francis are other potential comparisons. Smith may be underrated in this draft because of his High school ACL tear, and subsequent terrible team situation with NC State. However, he also bounced back extremely quickly from the ACL injury, showing that he is fearless.
I think Smith is just as talented as Jackson, Fultz or anyone else. If he lands outside of the top 3, he is a steal. It’s hard to put him ahead of Lonzo because Lonzo’s numbers are fantastic. However, I think Lonzo’s game is difficult to project because of how polarizing his strengths and weaknesses are. Those weaknesses could turn out to be flaws.
4. Lonzo Ball
Risk: 7/10
Potential: 10/10
He is tall for a PG at 6’6 with a 6’8 wingspan. Elite fast break quarterback. He is competitive on both ends. The speed and energy that he plays with is infectious in a way that few point guards can claim. Kidd and Nash are recent examples.
Incredible finisher at the rim, with a 79% FG in that area. Partly because he was assisted more than normal for a point guard at 52%, many of those being alley oops.
Excellent 3pt shooter with deep range. Weird shot because he bring it through the left side of his body. A mitigating factor is that he sprints around the court and does a great job of getting open off the ball. His footwork is excellent and he wastes no time getting his shot off as he quickly hops into his shot. He has a quick release, despite the unconventional position of his release. Only shoots 67% at the FT line, which is a concern, but it’s fixable, as he should correct his form to more closely replicate his 3pt shot.
He is limited as an isolation player in the half court. Does not have a creative handle, footwork, or raw explosiveness to create. This includes both in ISO situations and on pick and rolls. His court vision is diminished if he isn’t sprinting towards up the court or towards the rim. No mid range game.
18.1% usage. This is an issue. He is poor at creating shots for himself. FT rate of .286 is paltry. He has extreme efficiency metrics because he took a lot of 3s, and finished well at the rim. He took only 8 midrange shots the whole season.
The UCLA offense was primed to generate these types of looks for him. If NBA defenses know that he probably will either 1) go left and pull up for three 2) drive all the way to the basket, will it be that difficult to guard him?
He is also turnover prone. For most young point guards it takes time to reduce turnovers. However, my concern with Ball is that his turnovers come in the half court. If his is an ineffective shot creator and ineffective passer in the half court, then he effectively becomes a spot up 3pt shooter. This is not a recipe for NBA stardom.
Smart and competitive defender. Takes risks at exactly the right time, showing great awareness. However, he can also get beat by quickness and explosiveness. His length may not help him as much in the NBA.
TS% 0.673
FG% at rim 78.9%
%assisted at rim 51.5%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 46.2% (small sample)
3FG% 41.2%
%assisted 3s 73.8%
FTA/FGA 28.6%
FT% 67.3%
Conclusion
Ball is one of the most unique prospects to ever be drafted. Ball is being hailed as the next coming Jason Kidd, but there games have clear differences. The biggest contrast is Kidd’s defense. Kidd was not as tall as Ball, but he was heavier, stronger, and quicker. Kidd had better anticipation on defense, with a ridiculous 3.8 & 3.1 steals per game in his years in college. Kidd dominated the usage of his team, with far more assists and shot attempts. He also used his strength to get to the FT line at nearly double Ball’s rate. On flip side, Ball has a deadly 3 point shot. I would NOT describe Ball as Jason Kidd with a 3pt shot. Not even close. For a more pessimistic person, he could also be described as a less athletic Zach Lavine with fast break court vision.
I think Ball is a more risky prospect than people think. He has some terrific strengths (3pt shooting, defensive timing, rebounding, passing), but also some obvious weaknesses that may never be reconciled. For instance:
1. Defending quick guards
2. Isolation offense
3. PNR offense
4. Mid range shooting and FT shooting
5. Ability to draw fouls
6. If he increases his usage, will his efficiency drop?
Ball is such a unique player that he could end up the best player in this draft, or he might not end up in the top 10.
A special father’s day note
One area which is seen as a weakness, is actually a great strength. His parents. His father, Lavar Ball, is some combination of crazy and promotional genius. But he also has incredible belief in his children. He had a dream that his children would be NBA stars and he has pushed them towards achieving that goal since before they were born (since he basically scouted their mother).
Confidence is a key for most talented players who reach the NBA. They need to believe in themselves in order to work hard and improve. Lonzo has dreamed about being an NBA star all his life, and he’s worked hard towards that goal every day. He may have control his father one day, but overall, his father has been a huge asset.
It may be best for Ball to get drafted by LA, which is the closest version of the dream which he has been visualizing. He’s worked hard to be a Laker his whole life. Being drafted by the Lakers would give him extra confidence, and I think it would improve his chances of being a star.
5. De’Aaron Fox
Risk: 7/10
Potential: 10/10
Terrific length and athleticism at the PG position, 6’4, with a 6’6 wingspan. Close to being a freak athlete, with terrific quickness, speed, and above average jumping.
Excellent shot creator on the drive. Can go either left of right with crossovers and in-out dribbles. Excellent finisher at the rim, where he shot 64%. His FT rate is also a solid 74%.
Biggest weakness is his jump shot. He has no 3pt shot to speak of at 27%. However, he can hit the mid range shot, 36.2% on 2 point jumpers, and shot 74% at the free throw line. Terrific finisher at the rim, shot 64%, assisted on only 20%.
27.6% usage was high. This is a good sign, showing that he dominated the ball.
OK passer. Good in the full court and on the PNR, but not
Smart defender. Great at getting steals, excellent lateral quickness. Sense of timing and ability to read the defense.
TS% 0.549
FG% at rim 64.2%
%assisted at rim 19.6%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 36.2%
3FG% 24.6%
%assisted 3s 76.5%
FTA/FGA 47.4%
FT% 73.6%
Conclusion
I think De’Aaron Fox has star potential. Quickness and slashing reminds me of Dennis Schroder. I think he also has a pretty high floor because of his athleticism, poise, slashing abilities, and defense.
He is a bit underrated, because I think he’ll be able to add 3pt range eventually. He has a decent shooting motion and shoots FTs fairly well (and in fact, much better than Ball and Fultz). A great pick in the top 5. Arguably a better pick than Ball. I consider them somewhat equal because there is a chance that Fox will continue to struggle with shooting.
6. Jonathon Isaac
Risk 8/10
Potential 10/10
Similar to a Anthony Davis’s story, he grew six inches at the end of high school. Suddenly he is 6’11 with a 9’1 standing reach. This is a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing because he has incredible length and athleticism. The curse right now is that he is rather frail and less coordinated in his body.
He is quick on his feet, and seems comfortable on the perimeter. However, because of his recent growth spurt, he seems less confident.
His ball handling skills are very weak for a perimeter player. His shot creation is practically non-existent. He struggles to determine when to shoot. Furthermore, his passes often lead to turnovers.
That said, his actions reveal glimpses of stardom. His jump shooting and footwork resemble Kevin Durant to some degree. He is well balanced on his hop shot, which he uses for catch and shoot, turnaround, and pull up jumpers.
He is also a great cutter off the ball, making strong moves to the basket and capable of finishing strong at the rim either by dunk or lay up. These things show in the numbers. He shot 70% at the rim, and was assisted on 49% of these shots. He also got to the FT line at a high 46% rate.
Although his midrange shot is good, and he shot 41% on 2pt jumpers, he will need to change his shot to improve his range. Unfortunately he is way too stiff, which makes it difficult to stay accurate on the long distance shot. He shot 35% from 3, on 84% assisted, which is mediocre. There is plenty of reason for optimism though, since his 78% from the FT line is good.
He is a willing defender. He works hard and is great at keeping guards in front of him with his quickness. He has a high block rate at 6.2%, which should translate well to the next level. Although he is a bit lacking in defensive awareness, he seems to genuinely care. He had great defensive metrics, with a 6.2 DBPM.
Although some criticize his demeanor as that of a role player, I think it’s a healthy attribute that he doesn’t overestimate his abilities at this point. He had a 20.3% usage rate, which is average. His confidence and usage will probably improve over time.
TS% 0.614
FG% at rim 69.8%
%assisted at rim 48.6%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 41.0%
%assisted 2pt J 36.0%
3FG% 34.8%
%assisted 3s 83.9%
FTA/FGA 46.1%
FT% 78.0%
Conclusion
The right team situation may be crucial to his development, and that’s why the risk is higher than most of the other lottery prospects. He has a thin frame, and the lack of strength provides problems. His body is similar to Durant’s but not every player with that body type can use it to his advantage.
Isaac has various things to improve, but he has a solid base to build off. His footwork and FT% suggest the he will be a strong shooter with practice. His defensive metrics are stellar. His skinny frame may help to maintain his quickness on defense, allowing him to defense the guard in the pick and roll. This is highly valuable skill.
Even if Isaac never manages to create off the dribble, he will be a valuable player. Durant was a superior player at the same age. But if Isaac works hard, he should be able to turn himself into a poor mans version of KD.
7. Jayson Tatum
Risk 6/10
Potential 9.5/10
Tatum is an interesting player who can be a great wing. He has size for a SF at 6’8 with a 6’11 wingspan. While lacking superior quickness, he has good all around athleticism.
He is truly versatile: shooting, shot creation, and defense.
Good shooter. He shot 34% at the 3pt line, and 85% at the FT line. Combined, the outlook for his NBA 3 is positive. His 3pt shooting should improve a lot in the coming years.
For a wing, he is a very good shot creator and finisher. He finished well at the rim, at 62%, especially considering he was assisted on only 29% of these plays. His FT rate of 38% is also a good sign, especially when he shoots a great FT percentage. Furthermore, he has a mature mid range pull up in his arsenal.
Good rebounder, at 12.6% rebound rate.
He is a decent defender. Mediocre 2.3% steal rate and excellent 3.2% block rate. Good defensive plus minus score of 4.1 DBPM.
TS% 0.566
FG% at rim 62.0%
%assisted at rim 29.3%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 39.4%
%assisted 2pt J 12.0%
3FG% 34.2%
%assisted 3s 87.5%
FTA/FGA 38.1%
FT% 84.9%
Conclusion
Tatum is a solid player. In this PG heavy draft, Tatum stands out. However, his upside seems a bit limited relative to the top point guards. He seems to be mediocre on the defensive end, without obvious strengths aside from his versatile scoring.
In any case, he is a great pick in the top 10. I think Jonathon Isaac has the higher upside, but it comes with more risk. Therefore, I rank Tatum and Isaac roughly equal as prospects. If anything, this is a bit low for Tatum. I think there is a remarkably small gap between Josh Jackson and Tatum.
8. John Collins
Risk 6/10
Potential: 9.5/10
Collins is undersized at 6’9 with a 6’11 wingspan. He will be able to play PF, and maybe C in a small line up.
Explosive leaper, which is rare for his size. 33″ no step vertical and 37.5″ max vertical are phenomenal. Reminiscent of Amare Stoudemire.
He is a highly polished scoring PF. Efficient inside scorer in the post, off the PNR, and in transition. Excellent 29.9% usage, showing that his effiency came at high volume. True shooting was an astounding 66%.
He has great touch on floaters and turn around shots. I think this bodes well for his ability to extend his range. He shot 45% in the midrange (though these were relatively close to the basket) with 61% assisted.
He is limited by his lack of a 3pt shot. However, he has great potential to improve his shot over time with a 75% performance from the FT line. He is phenomenal at getting to the line, with a 59% FT rate.
Great rebounder. 10 reb in only 27 mpg. Total rebound percentage of 21.1% is one of the best in college. Rebounding translates well to the NBA.
Overall defense is pretty bad, despite ample shot blocking. Defensive awareness is low, as he often loses his man. Block percentage was a reasonable 6.6%, but should be better considering his athleticism. He also has the lateral quickness to move with guards, so the tools are there.
TS% 0.658
FG% at rim 74.7%
%assisted at rim 68.5%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 44.8%
%assisted 2pt J 60.9%
3FG% —
%assisted 3s —
FTA/FGA 58.5%
FT% 74.5%
Conclusion
Although a sophomore, he is young, at 19.7 years. He’s actually younger than Josh Jackson. He is underrated in this draft. His biggest flaw is mediocre defense. There is some reason for optimism on that end because of 1) shot blocking 2) lateral quickness which might allow him to stay in front of guards. I think he can be an average defender.
His rebounding is fantastic, and it is a skill which translates well. His offense should also be great, since he scores in so many ways (transition, post, PNR). He didn’t shoot any 3s, but his 75% free throw percentage is stellar for a young PF. He should be able to develop a 3pt shot within a couple of years. He’s a good pick outside the top 7 players.
9. Malik Monk
Risk 7/10
Potential 9.5/10
Malik Monk has a couple of excellent skills. 1. deadly quick release shot. 2. explosive finishing in the open court
He showed great poise and athleticism this season. Combined with an accurate quick release shot and good footwork, he has a clear NBA role.
However, his upside is somewhat limited by a few factors. One obvious issue is size. Monk is 6’3, with a 6’6 wingspan. That is ok for a PG, subpar for a SG. His athleticism makes up for it though. For instance, he was an excellent finisher at the rim, with 68% FG in that area.
Monk’s ability to handle the ball is average at best. He does not seem capable of playing point guard at this point. Furthermore, Monk is capable of creating shots for himself, but he has not shown an ability to create for others. A 13% assist rate is quite low.
Another factor is defense, where Monk would have to guard bigger SGs. Unfortunately he doesn’t seem to have the defensive awareness and focus to make up for the size different in a way that Avery Bradley has done. Although Monk the quickness to do this, he gives up a lot of strength and size to the average shooting guard
His low steal rate is a red flag.
Aside from shooting, Monk doesn’t stand out in any other area. In fact, it’s almost all weaknesses. His shot creation is not impressive. He doesn’t get to the FT line, with a FT rate of only 32%. He shot well on 3s, but was assisted 82% of the time, meaning he relies on someone else to pass him the ball. He doesn’t have a good array of skills going to the basket. He provides no rebounding.
His passing vision, decision making and accuracy all leave much to be desired.
TS% 0.586
FG% at rim 68.4%
%assisted at rim 47.4%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 37.9%
3FG% 39.7%
%assisted 3s 81.7%
FTA/FGA 32.3%
FT% 82.2%
Conclusion
At minimum, Monk should craft a role for himself as a backup guard in a similar mold to JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford, or Patty Mills. He has to improve his ball handling and passing to be effective as a shot creator. I think it’s a bit of a lower upside pick, as he has much work to do before he would reach star potential.
Could he be a Klay Thompson type of player? Yes. But if he can’t make that leap (in ball handling, defense, awareness), he’s just another decent shooter. Players like JR Smith, Jamal Crawford, JJ Redick, or Lou Williams can be acquired in free agency or the trade market. Overall, despite Monk’s limitations, his shooting and finishing at the rim are coveted skills. If he can add elite defense, and/or ball handling abilities, he can be a star.
10. Zach Collins
Risk 8/10
Potential 9.5/10
Collins has underrated potential. He is a legit 7ft tall, with 7’1 wingspan. He is quite quick for someone his size.
He has great timing on blocked shots and rebounds. Shows some fire at making key plays.
Strength is an issue at this point. It may take a couple of years before his strength is reasonable.
Good looking distance shot and jump hook. However, the 3pt shot was on limited attempts 10/21. 71% FG at the rim is great, although 66% of those shots were assisted.
Shot 74% from the FT line, so he has a good stroke. 72% FT rate is terrific and it can be a deadly weapon. His FT shooting can be a huge strength at the NBA level. FT% is a key bonus for the modern NBA center, since the team can keep him on the court in late game situations. Poor FT shooting big men simply get fouled in the 4th quarter.
Gets into foul trouble quite easily. Will he be able to block shots at the next level without fouling? He is a great shot blocker, at a block percentage of 9.8%. Almost 2 blocks in just 17 minutes per game.
TS% 0.703
FG% at rim 70.9%
%assisted at rim 66.0%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 55.6%
%assisted 2pt J 48.0%
3FG% 47.6% (small sample)
%assisted 3s 100.0%
FTA/FGA 71.5%
FT% 74.3%
Conclusion
Zach Collins is a decent prospect. However, in today’s NBA there is only room for 1 starting big man on each team. That player needs to be a good rebounder and shot blocker, or a 3 point shooter, in order to stay on the court. Similar to John Collins, Zach Collins can probably develop his 3pt shot because his FT% at 74% means he has a good release. Could be both a shot blocker and 3 pt shooter, which is a very rare combination.
11. Harry Giles
Risk 10/10
Potential 10/10
Giles is one of the biggest X-factors of this draft. Judging by his high school performance, Giles has incredible talent. 6’10, 7’3 wingspan, Giles should have the length to play Center.
Coming off one horrific knee injury and another ACL tear, Giles looked relatively slow and uncomfortable in his freshman year. He didn’t play until December.
That said, he still managed to perform well on the defensive end.
He should be a good rebounder and interior defender in the NBA. He averaged 3.8 rebounds (19.1% reb%) and 0.7 blocks (5.3% blk%) in just 11.5 minutes per game. These numbers normally translate well to the NBA.
On offense, Giles normally dunked the ball, or turned it over. It was a poor showing, but he didn’t have a role in the offense.
As an upside, Giles showed that he may be returning to health at the NBA combine. He was the fastest big man in the lane agility drill.
TS% 0.570
FG% at rim 71.7%
%assisted at rim 78.8%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 37.5%
3FG%
%assisted 3s
FTA/FGA 30.8%
FT% 50.0%
Conclusion
Giles is a gigantic gamble on draft night. Medical analysis will be key (and if I had access to it, that might drop him down this list). The team that drafts Giles needs to take extra care with him. They should commit to him and help him to regain his health and confidence, especially if he if he makes no progress for his first year.
His pre-injury high school clips show a fierce competitor who could confidently dribble the length of the floor and create shots for himself and others. Although that seems like a distant memory, the truth is that Giles still possesses that talent. Nobody knows if he can get back there, but he can probably be much better than his freshman year at Duke.
At minimum, if he can stay on the court, he should be a solid rebounder and dunker. He’s worth gambling on because he is probably the last player who has surefire superstar talent. I believe in swinging for the fences in the draft, and Giles is a home run if he returns to his former glory.
12. Lauri Markkanen
Risk 8/10
Potential 9/10
Markkanen is a sharpshooter at 7ft. For a big, he has superior jumping, accuracy and quick release from 3. He is a deadly weapon in this regard.
His footwork, quickness, ability to get open, and confidence in his shot mean that he should be very effective on offense, at least as a shooter. His shooting numbers are stellar. 42% on 2pt jumpers, 42% on 3pt jumpers, 84% FT. Note that 94% of his 3s were assisted.
His other offensive skills are extremely raw. He is non-existent as a passer, averaging almost no assists per game. Although he possesses a nice touch going toward the basket, he has no post game, with poor ability to finish hooks or turnarounds.
He is not a rebounder.
He is fairly quick and shows decent perimeter defense, good at close outs. But he shows absolutely nothing else on defense. no blocks or steals. No help defense whatsoever. This may always be a problem for him.
TS% 0.635
FG% at rim 69.5%
%assisted at rim 50.0%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 42.4%
%assisted 2pt J 26.0%
3FG% 42.3%
%assisted 3s 94.2%
FTA/FGA 43.6%
FT% 83.5%
Conclusion
Markkanen is difficult to assess. On offense, he seems to have the upside of a Porzingis or Dirk Nowitzki. However, his lack of defense and rebounding is a bad sign. Porzingis and Nowitzki both are productive at rebounding and defense. He needs to be at least a league average defender in order to be a star.
He is quite possibly another Andrea Bargnani. However, he already has a better jump shot. Ryan Anderson is another comparison, but Markkanen is not a rebounder like Anderson. It is hard to project Markkanen as more than a 7ft Kyle Korver. That’s what he may turn out to be, and he could be very effective in that role. It’s just difficult to take him above other players with upside on both ends of the floor. Harry Giles has far more risk than Markkanen, but I think it’s worth it considering Markkanen’s flaws in defense and rebounding.
13. Frank Ntilikina
Risk 9/10
Potential 9.5/10
Ntilikina is a french player who is a relative mystery. He recently had a great showing at the EU U18 tournament, where he won MVP. He lit up the other teams for 15 points, mostly from distance, with 58% 3pt shooting, on 5 shots per game. 92% FT on 2 attempts per game. He also piled up 2.2 stl and 1.2 blk per game.
In a draft of big PGs, Ntilikina is gigantic. He is 6’5 with an astounding wingspan of nearly 7ft.
Although he is raw, especially in terms of ball handling and turnovers, he has good basketball instincts.
He is loose with the ball, but shows potential to develop multiple dribble moves and slash to the basket. However, his current footwork will not allow him to create shots out of the ISO, because he doesn’t use his athleticism to generate momentum to the basket. It will benefit him greatly if he is in a system which heavily relies on the pick and roll, as he showed poise and IQ running it.
He looks to pass first, with a good mentality for a point guard.
At this point, he works hard on defense, with varying results. While his defense is fairly effective in Europe, I expect that he will get burned in the NBA at first. He notices screens and works hard to get around them. He tries to stay in his stance. However, a big issue he has is defensive positioning. He allows the guard to get an easy angle to the basket. I expect that many point guards will blow by him. He needs to improve, but I think these adjustments are not difficult. Eventually, he will figure out how to use his size to sag off and then bother shots with his length. He can be a lock down defender in the future.
Conclusion
Although Frank is one of the greater unknowns in the draft, his age (18.9 years) and profile give him incredible upside. Although his 3pt shot and PNR offense are relatively advanced, his shot creation, ISO offense have much to improve. He doesn’t have an elite first step.
Considering how young he is, the maturity and basketball IQ are impressive, otherwise I would rank him a bit lower. I think he can become at least a good defender. As a prospect, he is quite a gamble. Drafting him and stashing him in Europe for a year or two is a possibility, which reduces the risk of using a pick on him. I think he should be drafted outside the top 10, but if the Mavericks draft him at #9, it’s probably because they have much more information on him than we do.
14. Isaiah Hartenstein
Risk 9/10
Potential 9.5/10
One of the youngest players in the draft, at 19.1 years of age, Hartenstein is a legit 7’1, with a 7’2 wingspan. Although he has only average explosiveness, Hartenstein has good quickness and moves very smoothly for a young man of his size. Impressive considering he has a good frame at 250 pounds.
Hartenstein is young, and he is certainly a project. However, he is a project the best sense of the term because he has potential in several areas and shows flashes of brilliance in all of them.
On offense, he runs hard in transition and throws down dunks. He’s good as the roll man in the PNR, as he cuts hard to the rim and makes himself a good target. He even grabs rebounds and dribbles the length of the court, making passes to teammates with his court vision.
He doesn’t have a great shot yet, but it can improve. Importantly, he shows an eagerness to take the 3. He shot 40% in 2016 on 3 attempts per game, but only 27% in 2017 (on fewer attempts) playing for a much better team, the Lithuanian Zalgiris. Shot 71% from the FT line, which isn’t amazing, but is good enough for a Center of his age.
He also has interesting face up moves. Especially when run off the 3pt line, he can drive, and uses nifty footwork to lose defenders, including spin moves and Euro step, and he finishes with floaters sometimes. He has some post moves, with a drop step and jump hook. He even passes well out of the post.
He is a strong rebounder, with a 19.4% rebound rate. He averaged 3 rebounds in his 11 mpg.
On defense, he had an excellent 3.82% steal rate, and solid 5.08% block rate. The steal rate was particularly impressive, and it doesn’t seem to be a fluke, as he had a 3.27% steal rate in the previous year. He has great anticipation on passes, and is good at jumping passing lanes. He is already a decent shot blocker. He even has the footspeed and anticipation to be a decent PNR defender.
These attributes sound great, but many of his moves are unpolished, despite looking fluid. He is plagued by turnovers, shooting inconsistency, foul trouble, and problems that many young big men have.
TS% .569
FTA/FGA .43
FT% .711
Conclusion
Hartenstein is flying under the radar because he grew up playing in Germany, and played for a Lithuanian team rather than play NCAA basketball. He has potential in every area of the game: shooting, post offense, face up offense, passing, shot blocking, and rebounding. Given the impact that Nikola Jokic has made, Hartenstein is worth investing in ahead of the other big men who have serious flaws. Potentially a draft and stash, which lowers the risk of picking him. Another advantage, he just turned 19 and has lots of time to improve.
15. Donovan Mitchell
Risk 7/10
Potential 9/10
Although Mitchell stands at only 6’3, his absurd 6’10 wingspan. Explosive athleticism gives him adequate capability to be a SG on the NBA level.
With incredible speed and quickness, Mitchell has the ability to be an NBA scorer. He can explode to the basket, and has an amazing vertical at the rim which allows him to dunk on players.
He also has a solid jump shot. Although his overall shooting numbers are not outstanding, he shot well in catch and shoot situations. He has a good hop shot, which allows him to release the ball quickly. He has NBA range already. Hit 81% from the FT line. Only shot 35% from 3, but his FT proficiency bodes well for his ability to hit the NBA 3.
He also has a good pull up jumper, and has tremendous balance on more advanced dribble + jumper moves like step backs.
Mitchell also has the quickness and length to be a good defender. He is low the floor and has good anticipation. He had 2 spg, which is excellent. 3.7% steal percentage. Steals are correlated well with NBA success. His 4.8 DBPM is a good score on defense.
Unfortunately, Mitchell has some flaws which may limit his ability to use his athletic abilities. First, his offensive awareness leaves much to be desired. Although he has great moves, his finishing at the rim is dreadful, even in transition. He only shot 56% at the rim. On the other hand, only 20% of his shots there were assisted, so he created these shots on his own. He also was unable to get to the FT line, yielding a rather poor 24% FT rate.
Currently, he has shot selection. He settles for difficult long range and pull up jump shots. His court vision and passing are also poor. He averaged only 2.7 assists in 30 mpg. It’s hard to see him being a PG on the nba level.
No rebounding to speak of.
TS% 0.534
FG% at rim 55.9%
%assisted at rim 19.7%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 35.0%
%assisted 2pt J 8.6%
3FG% 35.4%
%assisted 3s 78.8%
FTA/FGA 24.3%
FT% 80.6%
Conclusion
Donovan Mitchell is a decent pick because he at least has the raw tools to succeed (both athleticism and shooting skill). Yet, Mitchell has a confusing mix of good instincts and bad instincts. He will have to develop his decision making and court vision. To some degree, players are born with these traits. We will see whether Mitchell can change this. I think he’s worth picking outside of the top 10.
16. Derrick White
Risk 7/10
Potential 9/10
White is severely underrated. He had a 4 inch growth spurt after high school. He is big for a PG at 6’4.5, 6’7.5 wingspan. Although he seems like an average athlete when you watch him, his athletic results from the NBA Combine are stellar. He was great in both the 3/4 court sprint (2nd) and standing vertical leap (3rd).
His size comes through on the defensive end. He averaged an excellent 1.4 blocks per game, block percentage of 4.9%. That’s good for a center, so it’s amazing for a PG.
His shot is excellent. He has a quick release, which he shoots of the hop step. He shot 40% from 3 on 4.3 attempts per game. We should boost this in our minds, because he was assisted on only 61% of these 3s. He shot 80.5% at the FT line, which bolsters his long range shooting numbers. This was actually lower than he shot in prior years as he hit 83% of his free throws at Colorado Springs. He gets to the line frequently, with a terrific 45% FT rate.
He is a highly efficient scorer. He was awesome both in the mid range (44%, with only 29% assisted), and at the rim (68%, with only 17% assisted). Solid 25.3% usage. Add it all up, and he had a true shooting of 63%. An outstanding mark, especially when you consider the above average usage and shot creation.
White doesn’t have great ISO creation abilities. However, he has an excellent shot, and he is smart about attacking the defense when they react to his shooting threat. We have seen players like Kyle Lowry be highly effective in this type of role.
White is less impressive as a passer. He only averaged 4.3 assists per game. However, his assist percentage was still a reasonable 28.6%. This could increase, as he has high basketball IQ on both ends of the floor.
TS% 0.627
FG% at rim 68.1%
%assisted at rim 16.7%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 43.7%
%assisted 2pt J 28.8%
3FG% 39.6%
%assisted 3s 61.4%
FTA/FGA 45.0%
FT% 81.3%
Conclusion
Although White is a 23 year old, nearly 4 years older than many of the freshman, he has developed well in a number of areas which are key for NBA success. White is being projected in the early 2nd round, where he would be an absolute steal. In this draft, I think he’s a good pick anywhere outside of the lottery. Many of the big men in the draft are highly flawed prospects.
Expectations are obviously higher for a fifth year Senior, but I think that White’s profile lives up to those expectations. In a strange way, the risk analysis changes for a senior PG who has well developed skills. Why? They will either prove themselves quickly, or they will be busts. This might end up being better for a team because within 3 years a team normally faces the decision of whether or not to give a big extension to the player. Senior PGs who are below the radar have done well in the past. Think of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum for two recent examples. I think Derrick White fits this mold, although his shooting isn’t quite as good as those two. White has some extra size / length (which he actually uses for blocks). This gives him better defensive potential than Lillard and McCollum, who both struggle defensively.
The biggest issue that I see with White is that, despite his athletic metrics, he doesn’t seem to move that quickly on the court. I think that’s related to playing somewhat upright and utilizing his speed to its full potential. This represents both a pro and a con. On one hand, the right coach / trainer might be able to teach him to use his body to speed up his game and make him even more lethal. On the other hand, using your athleticism on defense and with the ball on your hands is a skill, and there is no guarantee that he will figure it out.
An offsetting factor which makes him a slightly lower risk: he has the size and athleticism to play SG on defense. If he fails to guard fast PGs, he might be able to play SG because he is a good rebounder, shot blocker, catch and shoot player.
17. Jonah Bolden
Risk 7/10
Potential 9/10
Great height for a stretch 4 at 6’10, with a wingspan of estimated 7’3.
He doesn’t seem to be a freak athlete, but has a smoothness to his game which shows good coordination and balance. At 21.5 years old, Bolden is 2 years older than many freshman. However, he has a high upside profile. He has the size to play PF, with a slightly quicker foot speed which allows him to guard on the perimeter. He can guard quicker players, which especially useful because PNR switches are common in today’s NBA.
He shot 40% from the 3pt line, getting his shot off in a variety of ways. He has a hop shot on the catch and shoot, he uses the jab step and rocks back into the shot, and he even looks good on pull ups and shots off the dribble in isolation. He shot some of his 3s at or near the NBA 3pt line. This makes him a great bet to be an effective stretch 4, since he can get his shot off quickly, and in a variety of ways. I am discouraged by his 60% FT shooting, but he had more 3pt attempts than FT attempts, so maybe it’s less representative.
Solid rebounder. Rebounding percentage of 16.6%. Excellent offensive rebounder, but a poor defensive rebounder. With the right training, I think he can get stronger and learn to box out.
Good assist% for his position, with 11.0%
He is a smart player. Although he makes mistakes, especially turn overs, he seems to have the court vision and basketball IQ which will be fruitful over time. He averaged 1.3 steal (2.56%) and 0.9 blocks (3.81%) in 27 mpg. Both are good rates, and these stats are highly predictive of NBA success.
TS% .580
FG% at rim 55% according to Draft Express
%assisted at rim —
FG% 2pt Jumpers —
3FG% 40.5%
%assisted 3s —
FTA/FGA 33.1%
FT% 60.2%
Conclusion
He played one year at UCLA before leaving to the Adriatic League. Of course this makes it harder to judge his performance. Many of the big men in this draft have severe flaws. A team could draft and stash him in Europe, lowering the risk.
Bolden is one of the few players with the combo of length, shooting, lateral quickness, rebounding, defensive stats, and basketball IQ to turn into a star at the NBA level. He has some flaws, but if he plays good defense and shoots the 3 well, he could have a lot to contribute.
18. Jawun Evans
Risk 7.5/10
Potential 8.5/10
Jawun Evans is a 6’0 PG with a 6’5 wingspan. He is undersized, but his quickness makes up for it.
Evans is a skilled offensive player. He has strong ball handling skills and footwork. He is capable of creating shots out of ISO, and penetrating the lane. Great decisionmaking in PNR situations.
Decent shooter. Shot 38% on 3s. This is better than it seems, since he was only assisted on 39% of these shots. His 81% from FT line leaves room for optimism that he will learn the NBA three. Evans ability create his own shots is key.
We should also give Evans more leeway in terms of efficiency. He had the highest usage rate of any prospect, at 32.7%. This is a good indicator that he will be a useful PG, running the offense and creating shots for himself and others. Evans efficiency will probably improve with lower volume of possessions.
He only shot 50.4% at the rim, but he was assisted on only 5% of these shots. That is extremely low. Similarly, he shot 37% on 2s, but only was assisted on 9% of those shots. Despite the seemingly poor efficiency, he is truly creating these shots out of nowhere. The ability to create shots is a coveted NBA skill.
He is a decent passer as well, possessing strong court vision. 44% assist percentage.
Partly because of his height, he is not a good defender. He tries hard, and may become an average defender over time.
TS% 0.535
FG% at rim 50.4%
%assisted at rim 5.1%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 37.4%
%assisted 2pt J 8.6%
3FG% 37.9%
%assisted 3s 38.9%
FTA/FGA 39.6%
FT% 81.2%
Conclusion
Evans is similar to Isaiah Thomas as a prospect. He could be a great scorer on the next level, but he will need to be highly efficient at the NBA level to be effective. It is likely that he will never be a great defender. He is also older than some freshman by 1.5 years.
Despite his defensive limitations, the importance of efficient scoring in the NBA is increasing. It is possible that he will reach the heights of Isiah Thomas from this past season. Thus I think he’s worth drafting ahead of many of the older players and especially the big men who have significant flaws. His ability to create shots will make him a useful NBA player, potentially a star.
19. Frank Mason III
Risk 8/10
Potential 9/10
(hat tip: “Scouts honor” on youtube)
Frank Mason is a senior, and small (6’0 tall, 6’3 wingspan). So why does he show up here? Incredible combination of skill, quickness, strength and work ethic.
Scores in a variety of ways.
1. He is extremely quick and uses an explosive first step in both the half court and transition. He is good at getting to the rim. Although he only had a 56% FG at the rim, that was actually quite good considering only 21% were assisted. Also, he got to the line at a prolific 48.4% rate, which is outstanding.
2. He has a terrific jump shot. Both a great catch and shoot finisher, and a shooter off the dribble. 42% on 2pt shots. An amazing 47% on 4.8 3pt attempts per game, with only 56% assisted. Shooting percentages are supported by a 79% at the FT line.
3. Capable passer. Throws rocket passes after penetrating into the lane. 26% assist percentage is not amazing, but it’s reasonable for a scoring PG.
Although many undersized point guards get burned on defense, Mason is surpsingly decent on this end. He is quick, strong, and has a low center of gravity which makes it difficult to bump past him.
He is a terrific, underestimated athlete. Per NBAdraft.net “KU trainer Andrea Hudy has regarded him as the strongest player on the team, and this greatly aids him on the court”. He finished well in the shuttle run and 3/4 court sprint, and his vertical was outstanding. Standing vertical 34″ and max vert 41″. Although these athletic numbers are impressive, the key point is that Mason knows how to use these traits on the court. He knows how to get the most out of his speed WITH the ball.
TS% 0.622
FG% at rim 56.0%
%assisted at rim 21.4%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 41.8%
%assisted 2pt J 10.7%
3FG% 47.1%
%assisted 3s 56.1%
FTA/FGA 48.4%
FT% 79.4%
Conclusion
Although many will assume that Frank Mason III is a career backup because of his size, they made a similar mistake with Isaiah Thomas. However, this time the mistake may be bigger, because Frank Mason might be capable of being an average or better defender as well. I think he has potential to be a starting PG in the league.
20. Frank Jackson
Risk 7.5/10
Potential 8.5/10
Although undersized for a SG, and lacking the PG skills to make that his primary position, Jackson has some intriguing qualities.
He is young and athletic at 19.1 years old. He dominated at the NBA combine. First overall in the shuttle run, second overall max vertical leap 42″, third overall in standing vertical leap, fifth overall in 3/4 court sprint (per Draftexpress).
He shows good footwork and creativity driving to the basket. He shot 63% on shots at the rim, which is excellent considering he was only assisted on 23% of attempts.
Where he shined most is in his 3 point shooting. He launched 3.6 threes of the bench in 25mpg, hitting 40%. His 76% FT shooting is good as well. He is highly likely to shoot 3s well in the NBA.
Where he goes wrong is court vision and passing. He is assist% was only 12.6%. He is undersized for SG, so his lack of PG skills is crucial. He also shows a lack of ability to create out of the ISO.
On defense, he shows a disappointing lack of effort and awareness. His lack of steals and blocks is an additional red flag.
TS% 0.598
FG% at rim 63.2%
%assisted at rim 23.3%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 38.6%
%assisted 2pt J 18.2%
3FG% 39.5%
%assisted 3s 84.3%
FTA/FGA 36.3%
FT% 75.5%
Conclusion
Jackson suffered a stress fracture in his foot, and underwent foot surgery in May. He may have ranked higher, if not for this issue.
His combination of 3pt shooting, explosive athleticism, and finishing at the rim is rare. Despite his size disadvantage and awareness issues, he has great upside, which is worth drafting outside the lottery.
21. OG Anunoby
Risk 10/10
Potential 9/10
Anunoby has great size and athleticism. At 6’8, with a 7’6 wingspan, he has just the right combo of quickness and strength to play PF in the modern NBA.
He is quick and explodes to the rim. Good finisher at the basket 76% at the rim.
Capable of getting rebounds at 12.5% rebound rate, although he is inconsistent in that area.
On defense, he has a lot of potential. He is quick enough to switch onto the guard, similar to Draymond Green. He is athletic, getting a decent amount of blocks (5.5% rate) and steals (3.0% rate). These are excellent marks, especially for a forward.
He has some accuracy on his jump shot, but the release needs work because it is low and very slow. He shot 45% from 3 as a freshman, then 31% as a sophmore. But his FT% was only 56%. He is far away from having an effective jump shot.
His offensive awareness is very poor. He has no shot creation abilities in ISO or post up. Worse, he is turnover prone, and incapable of passing.
His defensive awareness is also lacking. However, none of his weaknesses are fatal. I think he could learn a lot with more experience.
TS% 0.611
FG% at rim 76.1%
%assisted at rim 45.1%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 30.0% (small sample)
3FG% 31.1%
%assisted 3s 100.0%
FTA/FGA 39.3%
FT% 56.2%
Conclusion
Anunoby has a ton of potential, given his physical gifts. He is a basically a perfect SF prototype.
Unfortunately, he is very raw, lacking a clear skill that would make him useful on offense. His 56% FT performance doesn’t give much hope for his jump shot. He has much to learn. Some things, like court vision might be impossible for him to learn. The fact that he needs to improve awareness in every facet of the game is worrisome. On the other hand, it means he has loads of potential if he actually does improve.
Increasing the risk, he tore his ACL in January. This raises serious question marks about his future athleticism, which is his single greatest strength. He is an extreme risk, first because of his knee, and second because of his lack of offense and overall awareness. Is he better than an Al Farouq Aminu? Doubtful, but I think he is a good pick outside the lottery, because the upside is there.
22. TJ Leaf
Risk 6/10
Potential 8.5/10
Leaf is a good scorer and a decent rebounder. He is a decent athlete, with good enough length for an NBA PF at 6’10, with a 9′ standing reach.
Leaf’s best attribute is his shooting. He has an excellent outside shot. He shot an excellent 47% from the 3pt line. 44.5% on midrange jumpers as well. He shoots well off the catch and shoot, and off the dribble. His FT% is a concern, at only 68%.
He also has a FT rate of only 28%, which is low for a scoring big man.
Overall, he has a nice array of moves on offense, both facing up, and posting up. He was a highly efficient scorer at the college level.
Unfortunately, Leaf is not an explosive athlete. He lacks some of the strength / length / explosiveness to be a good interior defender. He also is mediocre in his defensive awareness.
TS% 0.660
FG% at rim 77.4%
%assisted at rim 66.2%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 44.5%
3FG% 46.6%
%assisted 3s 96.3%
FTA/FGA 27.8%
FT% 67.9%
Conclusion
Leaf has a great asset in his shooting. He should be able to play the stretch 4. He will probably model himself after Ryan Anderson. However, Anderson has better size and rebounding ability. Furthermore, Leaf’s upside is relatively low because of his current weaknesses, which he may have difficulty changing, as they relate to his physical limitations.
23. Justin Patton
Risk 8/10
Potential 8.5/10
Patton is a great athlete. 6’11 with a 7’2 wingspan, he has good length for a center.
He has excellent quickness, and good speed in the open court. He runs hard and is often open for long passes a few times per game. Good hands for receiving passes, and pretty soft finish around the rim. Finishes a lot of dunks off of lobs.
He is a bit raw in terms of his skills and awareness. He gets a bit over a block per game (5.9% block rate), but should get more considering his quickness, length and jumping ability.
He is excellent on pick and roll defense, quick enough to contain the guard, and his length and quickness allows him to bother passes in the air
He didn’t shoot the ball much, but was 8 / 14 from 3. Only about 50% from the FT line, which makes me pessimistic about his shooting.
Surprisingly, he is a mediocre rebounder (TRB 14%). This is unacceptable considering his physical gifts, and it draws questions about his awareness. He seems to work hard.
He is also a year older than most freshman.
TS% .671
FG% at rim 80.8%
%assisted at rim 72.0%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 32.9%
%assisted 2pt J 37.5%
3FG% 53.3% (small sample)
%assisted 3s 87.5%
FTA/FGA 29.4%
FT% 51.7%
Conclusion
He possesses excellent physical gifts, but his rebounding and defensive output are poor. He lacks some of the awareness and instincts that make for great rebounders and shot blockers. Although he has some strong potential, I am pessimistic because he is lacking in both awareness and shooting. He has decent upside, but not superstar potential, which is why OG, Hartenstein, and others are rated higher.
24. Josh Hart
Risk 7/10
Potential 8.5/10
Hart is a polished senior SF. prototypical 3 and D wing. He stands 6’6 with a 6’8 wingspan. Only has average athleticism, but he moves fluidly. Decent 35.5″ max vertical.
Excellent transition scorer. Has the handle to take it the length of the floor, and the footwork and touch to score the basket. Excellent footwork on all drives. Developed mid range game as well, as he shot 39% on 2pt jumpshots, with only 11% assisted.
Superb finisher at the rim. 71% is especially good, considering that only 43% were assisted.
40% from 3. Good at moving without the ball and getting himself open for catch and shoot. Can shoot it to the NBA three. Backed by a decent mark of 75% at the FT line.
Good defender. He has good quickness, plus he’s smart and works hard. Led to a good defensive plus minus score of 4.0 DBPM. Has a nice steal rate at 2.8%.
He had a significant share of the offense, with usage 27.8%. Therefore, the efficiency is not a fluke.
His court vision has improved every year. His assist rate is up to 18.8%, which is good for a wing.
TS% 0.619
FG% at rim 70.9%
%assisted at rim 42.7%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 39.1%
%assisted 2pt J 11.1%
3FG% 40.4%
%assisted 3s 86.5%
FTA/FGA 36.7%
FT% 74.7%
Conclusion
He reminds me of Danny Green, and we should expect that kind of contribution if he pans out. Hart probably has better ball handling and finishing abilities however, with lower upside on defense. Hart was one of the most efficient scorers in college basketball.
Because he scored in a way that should be replicable in the NBA, I think he’s worth picking. He should be able to be a 3 and D player right away.
25. Ike Anigbogu
Risk 8/10
Potential 8/10
Ike is a strong, athletic center. Although his height leaves much to be desired at 6’9, he has a huge 7’6 wingspan. This gives him an adequate 9’2 standing reach.
He is a good shot blocker (1.2bpg) and rebounder (4.0 rpg) in just 13mpg. That’s a block percentage of 8.8%, and rebound percentage of 16.7%
He has almost zero on offense aside from dunks and a jump hook. Shot 54% from FT line. High turnover player who is completely uncomfortable with the ball.
One of his biggest weaknesses at this point is that he is foul prone. As a defender and rebounder, his ability to avoid fouls would be critical to success at the NBA level.
His upside is quite high in terms of shot blocking and rebounding. He seems like a Bismack Biyombo type. Although that shows that he could be quite effective, it also limits his star potential. Furthermore, he has years of progress to make before he can be expected to make a positive impact.
Conclusion
Anigbogu is very young and athletic, at 18. Although his offensive potential is low, he may be a good enough defender / rebounder / dunker to fill a Tyson Chandler role. However, the team that drafts him must be prepared to wait a few years and develop him carefully. It would be unwise to use a high draft pick on him, and I think he is a reasonable pick in the late 1st or somewhere in the 2nd round.
26. Terrance Ferguson
Risk 9/10
Potential 8.5/10
Ferguson is a rail thin but athletic SG prospect. 6’7, 6’9 wingspan. He has a good 3pt shot. Excellent hop shot with a good release.
Lacks ball handling and shot creation abilities.
Not a rebounder, not a passer.
Has good defensive potential, but lacks defensive awareness at this stage. He has a dismall 0.76 stl%, 1.54% block percercentage.
Shows good athleticism with 38′ max vert at the combine. But is he more than a dunker?
TS% .470
Conclusion
Ferguson is very raw, but also very young. He didn’t get much exposure playing in Australia this year. The combination of explosive athleticism and shooting potential should be enough to make him worthy of a late first round pick.
He has star potential, but it seems to me that his probability to reach it are miniscule. He looks like an athletic dunker, with a chance to develop a good 3pt shot, but that is not a strong conviction. He has the potential because of his athleticism and youth, so that makes him a good pick at this point.
27. Luke Kennard
Risk 7/10
Potential 8/10
Kennard has decent size for a guard at 6’6, but poor wingspan at 6’5. He has below average athleticism.
He is a highly skilled shooter. Shot 44% from 3, on 2.7 attempts. Excellent FT shooter at 86%. He is shoots from various positions. catch and shoot, coming hard off a screen, etc. He is good at shooting off the dribble, and is comfortable using a series of shot and pass fakes before pulling up.
He also finished floaters very well, shot 26/49.
Had a 24% usage. With only a 13.6% assist percentage.
Unfortunately, his athletic abilities hurt him tremendously on the defensive end. He has neither the lateral quickness, nor the length to contain most quick guards. He has good defensive awareness, but his physical struggles are a huge problem. The low steal (1.3%) and block percentages (0.9%) are a red flag.
Not a rebounder.
TS% 0.629
FG% at rim 61.8% (only 18.4% of his shots)
%assisted at rim 18.2%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 48.2%
%assisted 2pt J 20.2%
3FG% 43.8%
%assisted 3s 76.1%
FTA/FGA 38.6%
FT% 85.6%
Conclusion
Kennard projects as an excellent shooter on the next level. One of the best combination of 3pt% and FT%, so he should be able to hit the NBA three. However, his defensive struggles are a huge concern, especially considering the ability of players such as Nik Stauskas to adapt to the NBA. I think Stauskas is quicker and more athletic than him.
Although Kennard could turn out to be a highly useful player like JJ Redick or Kyle Korver, the upside is simply not there to warrant a pick in the top 20, in my opinion. If Kennard fails are a scorer, he doesn’t have anything else in his game to fall back on. That said, Kyle Korver’s shooting was enough to make him a highly effective player on Atlanta, and we could see the same thing with Kennard.
28. Tyler Lydon
Risk 7/10
Potential 8/10
At 6’10, with a 7′ wingspan, Lydon looks to be a stretch 4 on the NBA stage. Has great jumping ability, but is not quick laterally.
Has a great jumpshot, with NBA range. Shot 40% and 39% in his 2 years from the 3pt line. Shot 84% at the FT line this past year. Thus, high probability that the shoots the 3pt shot well in the NBA.
Defensively, he has some use as a help defender, averaging 1.6 blocks per game, or a block percentage of 4.7%. There may be some upside here as well, becuase he blocked more shots in his freshman season, at a 7.0% block percentage. However, he has a slight frame, and doesn’t give full intensity. Shows some lapses in defensive awareness, but this might be improved with experience.
He doesn’t provide much else. His rebounding is mediocre at best. Shot creation was effecitvely zero. He is highly dependent on his shooting and shot blocking in order to make an impact.
TS% 0.599
FG% at rim 65.3%
%assisted at rim 45.3%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 39.2%
%assisted 2pt J 47.4%
3FG% 39.5%
%assisted 3s 91.8%
FTA/FGA 36.4%
FT% 83.6%
Conclusion
Lydon has good potential to be a stretch big man. I think his best position might be center, as he might provide decent shot blocking if he improves his defense. He would need to be paired with a good rebounder.
He is a catch and shoot target and lob target on offense. Although this is not a glamorous, players such as Ryan Anderson show that these roles can be highly efficient and important. I don’t think he has much star potential, but he is a good value pick in the late first round.
29. DJ WIlson
Risk 8/10
Potential 8/10
Wilson has stretch 4 written all over him. 6’10, 7’3 wingspan. 21 years of age. He is relatively inexperienced for his age, only playing 1 year after redshirting.
Excellent athleticism. He is quicker and more agile than the normal player of his height. He is quite capable of picking up the guard off the switch. He also has good potential as an interior defender, averaging 1.5 blocks per game, at 5.2% block percentage.
He has a good jump shot. He hit 37% of his 3s, on 3 attempts per game. This is supported by a great FT percentage of 83%, but only on 1.6 FTA.
Where his profile suffers is rebounding. He only grabbed 5.3 rebounds in 30.4 minutes, 11.6% rebound percentage. That’s terrible for a forward, far less a player with his size and athleticism
TS% 0.628
FG% at rim 83.1%
%assisted at rim 68.1%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 48.2%
%assisted 2pt J 29.6%
3FG% 37.3%
%assisted 3s 92.7%
FTA/FGA 19.7%
FT% 83.3%
Conclusion
Wilson has an excellent profile for an athletic stretch 4. Although he is a bit older, at 21, it seems that he can still improve his game.
I cannot believe how bad his rebounding numbers are! It’s a big red flag. His terrible FT rate is also a concern. Still, he is a good pick in the late first round or second round.
30. Jordan Bell
Risk 7/10
Potential 8/10
Bell is undersized for a big man, at 6’9, with a 6’11 wingspan. His size is offset by his phenomenal athleticism. He had 38″ max vert at the combine, along with stellar shuttle run and lane agility drill.
Bell’s best trait is shot blocking. He blocked 2.2 in 29 mpg, which is a 8.4% block percentage. This draft is starved for interior defense, and Bell should be a good defender at the NBA level. His lack of size is a bit worrisome at C, but excellent for a PF. He is quite quick, and his lateral movement allows him to stay with guards on the pick and roll. This is a key skill in the modern NBA. His defensive metrics are solid, with an elite 9.0 DBPM.
His rebounding is good at 17.6% rebounding percentage. Especially strong on the offensive rebounds, but can hold his own on the defensive reboounds too. Rebounding translates well, and he should be good at this.
Unfortunately, Bell provides almost nothing on the offensive end. He can finish, especially with the dunk, but he has no jump shot to speak of, and his post footwork is non existent.
He barely took any jump shots this year. However, his 70% at the FT line may be a sign that he can improve in this area.
TS% 0.658
FG% at rim 71.4%
%assisted at rim 52.6%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 49.2%
3FG% 21.4%
%assisted 3s 100.0%
FTA/FGA 43.5%
FT% 70.1%
Conclusion
Bell is an older prospect at 22. As an undersized, shot blocking PF, with almost zero offense, Bell may have difficultly finding a role in the modern NBA.
He will have to be excellent in defense and rebounding to have any impact. However, there are few big men in this draft who have great upside. I like Bell’s awareness and intensity. He is a good pick in the late first or second round.
31. Jarrett Allen
Risk 8/10
Potential 8/10
Allen has great length for an NBA center at 6’10 with an amazing 7’6 wingspan. Roughly 9’3 standing reach. Despite not having much explosive athleticism, Allen is well coordinated and smooth.
On offense, Allen has a good jump hook and running hook. he can finish with both hands. It looks great at times, but can be inconsistent. The form is excellent though, so it should improve with practice.
He is also a good finisher because of his length and huge hands. He is good at grabbing passes and throwing down dunks from various positions.
He doesn’t have much of a jump shot, and with roughly 50% from the FT line, this will require significant work just to be average.
Allen is also an excellent offensive rebounder. He has a pretty good read on the timing of these rebounds and his length and mobility help him grab it.
However, he has been a terrible defensive rebounder. He is not strong, and he was not able to box out other players. This is a big problem, and he will need to figure out how to develop these skills. Of course, there is potential there, since he is a great offensive rebounder.
He also has shotblocking ability, but once again, he is inconsistent. He lacks some defensive awareness and isn’t always keen to give help defense.
TS% 0.571
FG% at rim 71.1%
%assisted at rim 57.3%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 47.7%
%assisted 2pt J 42.2%
3FG% —
%assisted 3s —
FTA/FGA 47.2%
FT% 56.4%
Conclusion
Allen has some potential, but his lack of defensive rebounding and consistent results as an interior defender are disconcerting.
In the modern NBA, with no jump shot, teams need their center to provide dominant rebounding, and hopefully shot blocking as well. Since Allen has much to improve, he is a high risk player. His upside is not as high because he has several flaws.
32. Caleb Swanigan
Risk 9/10
Potential 8.5/10
Swanigan is a unique athlete at 20 years old. 6’8, with a 7’3 wingspan. Swanigan is wide and strong. Unfortunately he seems a bit slow footed, and this may limit his ability to play in the NBA.
He dominates near the basket, bullying weaker players with a series of moves. He shot an astonishing 80% at the rim, 64% assisted.
He also was a deadly shooter. He hit 45% of his 3s. Combined with a 78% at the FT line, Swanigan is highly likely to be an effective NBA three shooter.
TS% 0.620
FG% at rim 79.7%
%assisted at rim 63.7%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 39.4%
%assisted 2pt J 69.5%
3FG% 44.7%
%assisted 3s 94.7%
FTA/FGA 49.9%
FT% 78.1%
Conclusion
If his stranding reach doesn’t allow him to play center, he is probably going to get burned by quicker PFs. However, he clearly works extremely hard on both ends of the floor. He’s a great rebounder, post scorer, and has a decent 3pt shot. His ceiling is probably some combo of Ryan Anderson and Jared Sullinger. If he is quick enough, he could be a good player. That’s a huge question mark.
33. Semi Ojeleye
Risk 6/10
Potential 8/10
Semi is a well built 6’7 SF, with a 6’10 wingspan. He has excellent jumping ability. Excellent quickness as well, with a strong showing at the NBA combine.
He is an efficient scorer at the college level. Solid shooter, with 42% at the 3pt line. Shot 78.5% at the FT Line.
Not a great ISO player, but he is good with fundamental turnaround moves (again, using his jump shot) and very simple drives to the basket.
Good rebounder, but not great. Better as an offensive rebounder.
A red flag is his low block and steal rates. averaged 0.4 steals (0.8% stl%) and 0.3 blocks (1.6% blk%). This is very low, and these metrics are highly correlated with NBA success.
Semi is older than many prospects in the draft, and he may have less ability to improve.
TS% 0.621
FG% at rim 62.9%
%assisted at rim 59.1%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 41.2%
%assisted 2pt J 51.0%
3FG% 42.4%
%assisted 3s 86.3%
FTA/FGA 50.8%
FT% 78.5%
Conclusion
Terrific athlete, but his lack of blocks and steals is puzzling. He doesn’t perform well on defense, and doesn’t seem to do much aside from shoot. His age gives less hope for future improvement, as he is 2-3 years ahead of many other prospects.
He has an intriguing combination of athleticism and shooting. Can he develop his awareness enough to make an impact in the NBA? He has a ton to learn. I think he’s worth taking in the late first round or early second.
34. Justin Jackson
Risk 6/10
Potential 8/10
Jackson is tall and long, at 6’8 with a 6’11 wingspan. However, he is mediocre athlete at best. Although quite co-ordinated, he lacks quickness and explosiveness.
Jackson is a good all around player. he doesn’t have major strength, or major weaknesses.
Good shooter. 37% 3pFG and 75% FT suggests that has a good probability of hitting the NBA three.
He is excellent at moving without the ball, which is why he has 58% of his shot at the rim assisted from other players.
TS% 0.555
FG% at rim 66.7%
%assisted at rim 58.0%
FG% 2pt Jumpers 39.4%
%assisted 2pt J 33.8%
3FG% 37.0%
%assisted 3s 86.7%
FTA/FGA 22.0%
FT% 74.8%
Conclusion
Jackson has a nice offensive skill set. he’s a hard worker. However, his age, athletic limitations, and lack of great shooting ability make it difficult to project him as a star. He is a coachable player, and I hope he does well. But his low upside should put him in the late first round or below.
Best of the rest:
Tony Bradley, Dwayne Bacon, Kyle Kuzma, Bam Adebayo, Anzejs Pasecniks, Monte Morris, Devin Robinson, Edmond Sumner
Hoop Strategy 
Nice write up, will pick over it the coming days ahead.
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Thanks for reading! Let me know what you think
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